Currently policy is to discard from the usage stats any singles battle in a 6v6 format that lasts for fewer than six turns. This was my first attempt at weeding out players who were attempting to manipulate the usage stats. But since them, we've implemented a full-on weighting scheme, and it's not clear to me that the early-forfeit discarding is actually needed.
And if it is, then shouldn't I be doing something similar for 6v6 doubles and triples formats (throwing out battles that last for fewer than 3 or 2 turns, respectively)?
From a practical standpoint, here are the NU stats (standard weighting) for April 2016, with early forfeits discarded:
And now here are the same stats leaving in those early forfeits:
And if it is, then shouldn't I be doing something similar for 6v6 doubles and triples formats (throwing out battles that last for fewer than 3 or 2 turns, respectively)?
From a practical standpoint, here are the NU stats (standard weighting) for April 2016, with early forfeits discarded:
Code:
Total battles: 99399
Avg. weight / team: 0.175525
+ ---- + ------------------------- + --------- +
| Rank | Species | Usage % |
+ ---- + ------------------------- + --------- +
| 1 | Mesprit | 20.8646% |
| 2 | Lanturn | 18.6276% |
| 3 | Hitmonchan | 17.7743% |
| 4 | Hariyama | 14.0140% |
| 5 | Steelix | 13.9985% |
| 6 | Rotom | 13.7376% |
| 7 | Magmortar | 13.0243% |
| 8 | Xatu | 12.7274% |
| 9 | Skuntank | 12.5584% |
| 10 | Audino-Mega | 11.8811% |
| 11 | Weezing | 11.5753% |
| 12 | Liepard | 11.4919% |
| 13 | Scyther | 11.4240% |
| 14 | Garbodor | 11.3061% |
| 15 | Tauros | 10.9387% |
| 16 | Mismagius | 10.8708% |
| 17 | Swellow | 10.7648% |
| 18 | Pyroar | 10.2092% |
| 19 | Malamar | 10.1954% |
| 20 | Archeops | 9.8025% |
| 21 | Rhydon | 9.6564% |
| 22 | Charizard | 9.3838% |
| 23 | Vileplume | 9.3335% |
| 24 | Samurott | 9.2181% |
| 25 | Primeape | 9.0710% |
| 26 | Shiftry | 8.6677% |
| 27 | Kabutops | 8.4692% |
| 28 | Quagsire | 8.4078% |
| 29 | Claydol | 8.0804% |
| 30 | Omastar | 7.0723% |
| 31 | Ferroseed | 6.9959% |
| 32 | Abomasnow | 6.8065% |
| 33 | Ludicolo | 6.7713% |
| 34 | Kecleon | 6.6413% |
| 35 | Manectric | 6.5683% |
| 36 | Golurk | 6.4712% |
| 37 | Lilligant | 6.2792% |
| 38 | Electivire | 6.2766% |
| 39 | Kangaskhan | 6.2251% |
| 40 | Miltank | 5.9729% |
| 41 | Haunter | 5.8181% |
| 42 | Poliwrath | 5.6313% |
| 43 | Sandslash | 5.5999% |
| 44 | Aurorus | 5.5935% |
| 45 | Barbaracle | 5.3339% |
| 46 | Mantine | 5.2433% |
| 47 | Regirock | 5.2174% |
| 48 | Klinklang | 5.1270% |
| 49 | Piloswine | 5.0846% |
| 50 | Vivillon | 4.9327% |
| 51 | Combusken | 4.8835% |
| 52 | Zangoose | 4.7228% |
| 53 | Cradily | 4.6665% |
| 54 | Jynx | 4.6179% |
| 55 | Pinsir | 4.1265% |
| 56 | Musharna | 3.9405% |
| 57 | Rotom-Fan | 3.7803% |
| 58 | Pelipper | 3.7585% |
| 59 | Muk | 3.7307% |
| 60 | Cacturne | 3.5989% |
| 61 | Torterra | 3.4206% |
| 62 | Floatzel | 3.2662% |
| 63 | Mawile | 3.0433% |
| 64 | Gourgeist-Super | 2.9369% |
| 65 | Throh | 2.1252% |
| 66 | Crustle | 2.1145% |
| 67 | Carracosta | 2.0543% |
| 68 | Grumpig | 1.8546% |
| 69 | Exeggutor | 1.7341% |
| 70 | Prinplup | 1.6727% |
| 71 | Cryogonal | 1.5799% |
| 72 | Butterfree | 1.5339% |
| 73 | Golduck | 1.3970% |
| 74 | Sliggoo | 1.3251% |
| 75 | Linoone | 1.2709% |
| 76 | Electrode | 1.2433% |
| 77 | Torkoal | 1.2093% |
| 78 | Kadabra | 1.1977% |
| 79 | Raichu | 1.1805% |
| 80 | Articuno | 1.1435% |
| 81 | Tangela | 1.1426% |
| 82 | Ursaring | 1.1028% |
| 83 | Flareon | 1.0741% |
| 84 | Camerupt | 1.0727% |
| 85 | Ninetales | 1.0399% |
| 86 | Roselia | 1.0132% |
| 87 | Probopass | 1.0122% |
| 88 | Victreebel | 1.0062% |
| 89 | Chatot | 1.0044% |
| 90 | Clefairy | 0.9978% |
| 91 | Rampardos | 0.9647% |
| 92 | Lapras | 0.9486% |
| 93 | Golem | 0.8686% |
| 94 | Avalugg | 0.8537% |
| 95 | Ampharos | 0.8532% |
| 96 | Dusclops | 0.8384% |
| 97 | Altaria | 0.8263% |
| 98 | Leafeon | 0.8110% |
| 99 | Armaldo | 0.7928% |
| 100 | Leavanny | 0.7672% |
| 101 | Meowstic | 0.7666% |
| 102 | Arbok | 0.7647% |
| 103 | Ditto | 0.7592% |
| 104 | Gourgeist-Small | 0.7496% |
| 105 | Dusknoir | 0.7053% |
| 106 | Jumpluff | 0.6897% |
| 107 | Rapidash | 0.6795% |
| 108 | Frogadier | 0.6675% |
| 109 | Volbeat | 0.6544% |
| 110 | Mr. Mime | 0.6067% |
| 111 | Regice | 0.6047% |
| 112 | Beheeyem | 0.5898% |
...
Note that this table differs slightly from what's up here. These stats were calculated using Onix, my rewritten stats engine which is being actively developed. Part of the differences I expect due to tech debt, but the battle counts should be the same, so I'm not sure if there's a bug in the old code or a bug in the new code.
And now here are the same stats leaving in those early forfeits:
Code:
Total battles: 118321
Avg. weight / team: 0.162388
+ ---- + ------------------------- + --------- +
| Rank | Species | Usage % |
+ ---- + ------------------------- + --------- +
| 1 | Mesprit | 20.6261% |
| 2 | Lanturn | 18.5598% |
| 3 | Hitmonchan | 17.7762% |
| 4 | Steelix | 13.8677% |
| 5 | Hariyama | 13.8620% |
| 6 | Rotom | 13.5643% |
| 7 | Magmortar | 13.1020% |
| 8 | Xatu | 12.8665% |
| 9 | Skuntank | 12.4685% |
| 10 | Audino-Mega | 11.8592% |
| 11 | Weezing | 11.6744% |
| 12 | Scyther | 11.5123% |
| 13 | Liepard | 11.5042% |
| 14 | Garbodor | 11.1232% |
| 15 | Mismagius | 10.9286% |
| 16 | Tauros | 10.8244% |
| 17 | Swellow | 10.8062% |
| 18 | Malamar | 10.3085% |
| 19 | Pyroar | 10.2878% |
| 20 | Archeops | 9.8251% |
| 21 | Rhydon | 9.6103% |
| 22 | Charizard | 9.4179% |
| 23 | Vileplume | 9.2409% |
| 24 | Samurott | 9.2191% |
| 25 | Primeape | 9.1041% |
| 26 | Shiftry | 8.5962% |
| 27 | Quagsire | 8.4316% |
| 28 | Kabutops | 8.4272% |
| 29 | Claydol | 8.1475% |
| 30 | Omastar | 7.0709% |
| 31 | Ferroseed | 6.9947% |
| 32 | Ludicolo | 6.8168% |
| 33 | Abomasnow | 6.7906% |
| 34 | Kecleon | 6.6149% |
| 35 | Golurk | 6.5317% |
| 36 | Manectric | 6.5290% |
| 37 | Electivire | 6.3985% |
| 38 | Lilligant | 6.2678% |
| 39 | Kangaskhan | 6.1504% |
| 40 | Miltank | 5.9777% |
| 41 | Haunter | 5.8844% |
| 42 | Poliwrath | 5.6078% |
| 43 | Sandslash | 5.5700% |
| 44 | Aurorus | 5.5693% |
| 45 | Barbaracle | 5.3862% |
| 46 | Mantine | 5.2810% |
| 47 | Klinklang | 5.2338% |
| 48 | Regirock | 5.1689% |
| 49 | Piloswine | 5.1054% |
| 50 | Vivillon | 5.0269% |
| 51 | Combusken | 4.9075% |
| 52 | Zangoose | 4.7929% |
| 53 | Cradily | 4.7737% |
| 54 | Jynx | 4.6583% |
| 55 | Pinsir | 4.1524% |
| 56 | Musharna | 3.9026% |
| 57 | Rotom-Fan | 3.7835% |
| 58 | Muk | 3.7766% |
| 59 | Pelipper | 3.7431% |
| 60 | Cacturne | 3.6434% |
| 61 | Torterra | 3.4401% |
| 62 | Floatzel | 3.2396% |
| 63 | Mawile | 3.1127% |
| 64 | Gourgeist-Super | 2.8804% |
| 65 | Crustle | 2.1246% |
| 66 | Throh | 2.1111% |
| 67 | Carracosta | 2.0425% |
| 68 | Grumpig | 1.7916% |
| 69 | Exeggutor | 1.7510% |
| 70 | Prinplup | 1.6255% |
| 71 | Cryogonal | 1.5659% |
| 72 | Butterfree | 1.5376% |
| 73 | Golduck | 1.4303% |
| 74 | Sliggoo | 1.3104% |
| 75 | Linoone | 1.2945% |
| 76 | Electrode | 1.2450% |
| 77 | Torkoal | 1.1939% |
| 78 | Raichu | 1.1908% |
| 79 | Kadabra | 1.1773% |
| 80 | Articuno | 1.1251% |
| 81 | Tangela | 1.1067% |
| 82 | Flareon | 1.0872% |
| 83 | Ursaring | 1.0725% |
| 84 | Camerupt | 1.0474% |
| 85 | Ninetales | 1.0394% |
| 86 | Chatot | 1.0294% |
| 87 | Victreebel | 1.0169% |
| 88 | Probopass | 1.0026% |
| 89 | Roselia | 0.9951% |
| 90 | Rampardos | 0.9611% |
| 91 | Clefairy | 0.9610% |
| 92 | Lapras | 0.9547% |
| 93 | Golem | 0.8716% |
| 94 | Avalugg | 0.8561% |
| 95 | Ampharos | 0.8469% |
| 96 | Dusclops | 0.8445% |
| 97 | Leafeon | 0.8153% |
| 98 | Altaria | 0.8147% |
| 99 | Armaldo | 0.8131% |
| 100 | Leavanny | 0.7702% |
| 101 | Ditto | 0.7640% |
| 102 | Arbok | 0.7601% |
| 103 | Meowstic | 0.7568% |
| 104 | Gourgeist-Small | 0.7499% |
| 105 | Dusknoir | 0.6970% |
| 106 | Frogadier | 0.6797% |
| 107 | Jumpluff | 0.6693% |
| 108 | Rapidash | 0.6680% |
| 109 | Volbeat | 0.6529% |
| 110 | Mr. Mime | 0.6139% |
| 111 | Beheeyem | 0.6068% |
| 112 | Regice | 0.6056% |
...
[/quote]
We only have to go four mons down to see a difference in the ranking. And since this early-forfeit policy is known, it's unlikely anyone was even attempting to game the stats in this way!
Still, the differences are small, and the philosophical rationale is important. Hence why I pose this to PR rather than making an executive decision on my own.