THE ROAD TO THE PLAYOFFS
*format was stolen from this post by BigFatMantis
Was going to do this with five thoughts but since usage is delayed I'd like to get it up now so people know where they stand
Moo Moo Milkers
Record: 3-1-2
Points: 8
Differential: +4
The
Milkers are sitting in a very nice spot being the only team to reach 8 points. This makes it very likely for them to make playoffs, with only the following scenario being grounds for an elimination:
1. Lose to the
Dedennes 6-2 or worse this week
2. The
Huntails and
Cinccinos tie
3. The
Ribombies beat or tie with the
Scraggies
4. The
Magmortars beat the
Rends by any margin
OR
4. The
Rends beat the
Magmortars by 6-2 or more (the
Rends are -7 behind the
Milkers right now so they would have to make up that difference via a combination of a big win for them and a big loss for the
Milkers).
It's extremely unlikely for all this to happen and even just a 5-3 loss would guarantee them playoffs as it would mean the
Cinccinos can't overtake them with a tie due to differential.
Happy Huntails
Record: 2-1-3
Points: 7
Differential: +6
With 3 teams on 7 points, this is where things get interesting. The
Huntails stand at the top of that bunch with their +6 point differential, which gives them a leg up on the other two who are at +2 and +1. But still, their future isn't certain and they need to perform this week to see their dream come true.
Here's how they get in:
Method #1: Win or Tie against the
Cinccinos this week. Even though this may result in 5 teams at 8 or more points, a tie will guarantee they have a better differential than the
Cinccinos and guarantee them in.
Method #2: Lose to the
Cinccinos, and have only 1 of the
Ribombies,
Rends,
Mags and
Dedennes leapfrog them:
In a loss scenario, the
Milkers who are at 8 points and the
Cinccinos who would be at 9 points from a win would have to be guaranteed, and of course, we're assuming the
Huntails make it. This would mean there can be only one other team that has more than 7 points or has 7 points and a great differential than the Huntails.
The
Ribombies,
Rends,
Mags and
Dedennes could all end up being one of those teams which makes it tricky for the
Huntails. The
Ribombies would need to win or tie, the
Rends would need to win by any amount, the
Mags would need to win or tie, and the
Dedennes would need to win by a lot + have the
Huntails lose by a lot (-3 vs +6 differential).
Since the
Rends and
Mags play each other, one of them is guaranteed to leapfrog the
Huntails. This means the
Ribombies, who play the last place
Scraggies, would have to lose, and the
Dedennes, who play the first place
Miltanks, would have to avoid grabbing a huge win.
The
Huntails are in a good place to secure playoffs, but there's a very real possibility of them not making it this week with a loss so they need to lock in to make sure that doesn't happen.
Cheeky Cinccinos
Record: 1-0-5
Points: 7
Differential: +2
The
Cinccinos have continued to grind out ties all season and this puts them in a comfortable enough spot heading into the final week. Similar to the
Huntails, all they need to do is perform and we'll be seeing them in the playoffs.
Method #1: Win against the
Huntails. While it may be more in their nature to tie, the
Cinccinos would love a win this week as it guarantees them in.
Method #2: Tie against the
Huntails, and have either of the following two happen:
Ribombies lose or tie with the
Scraggies
OR
Rends lose, tie, or win beat the
Magmortars by 6-2 or less.
So I'd say the
Cinccinos are pretty safe with a tie.
Method #3: Lose to the
Huntails, and have only 1 of the
Ribombies,
Rends,
Mags and
Dedennes leapfrog them:
This is very similar to the
Huntails situation, except the
Cinccinos are in a much worse position in terms of point differential.
A win for the
Ribombies would see them leapfrog the
Cinccinos. Similarly, a tie and a
Cinccinos loss of 6-2 or more would do it. A 5-3 loss with a tie would mean a tiebreak scenario between the two.
A win OR a tie and a 7-1
Cinccino loss would have the
Rends go ahead.
A
Magmortars win or tie by any margin would have them go ahead.
A
Dedennes win + a
Cinccinos loss that would make up the point differential (-3 vs +2) would have the
Dedennes go ahead.
Since the
Magmortars and
Rends play each other, it would be best if one of them were to win as a tie would make it possible for them both to jump ahead.
Ultimately a loss would put the
Cinccinos in a bad situations, and while they can still make it through with one, they'd much rather avoid it.
Detonating Ribombies
Record: 3-2-1
Points: 7
Differential: +1
The last of the 7 points teams, the
Ribombies come in with a relatively weak +1 differential. However, like the other two teams, they can control their destiny by simply performing in this final week against the last place
Scraggies.
Method #1: Win against the
Scraggies. This would get them up to 9 points, a score only 3 teams can reach simultaneously.
Method #2: Tie with the
Scraggies and have any of the following three happen:
A win in the
Huntails vs
Cinccinos series (doesn't matter who)
OR
A tie in the
Huntails vs
Cinccinos series and the
Rends tie or lose.
OR
A tie in the
Huntails vs
Cinccinos series and the
Rends win 5-3.
Method #3: Lose against the
Scraggies and get leapfrogged by none of the
Rends,
Mags and
Dennes
Provided the
Cinccinos don't lose worse than the
Ribombies (+2 vs +1 currently), the
Ribombies can't afford to get leapfrogged by any team below them. As mentioned before, if the
Cinccinos and
Ribombies end up with the same points and differential it will go to tiebreak due to the W6 tie they had.
While unlikely the
Huntails could lose worse than the
Ribombies and fall below them if they lose 0-8 and the
Ribombies lose 3-5, which would give the
Bombies a bit of breathing room.
The
Rends can leapfrog with a win or a tie and by the
Ribombies losing 6-2 or worse (since the
Rends won the head-to-head matchup W2).
The
Mags can leapfrog with a win by any amount or a tie.
The
Dedennes can leapfrog by beating the
Milkers by enough to make up the point differential (-3 vs +1).
M.A.A.D. City Magmortars
Record: 2-2-2
Points: 6
Differential: +7
Outside of the top 4, we get to the teams that absolutely need to perform to advance. Thanks to crushing 6-2 and 6-1 weeks though, the
Magmortars are actually in a nice enough spot as in most cases they can get by with a tie.
Method #1: Win against the
Rends. Due to their differential, and depending on the results of other matchups, they could come first by doing this. Either way though, it guarantees them playoffs.
Method #2: Tie against the
Rends, and have one of the
Huntails,
Cinccinos or
Ribombies lose.
Since the
Cinccinos play the
Huntails, this is a very possible outcome, however, a tie in this matchup and the
Ribombies tying or winning would eliminate the
Magmortars.
A loss would mean elimination.
Vicious Rends
Record: 2-2-2
Points: 6
Differential: -3
A landslide 1-7 loss to the
Huntails W3 means the
Rends basically need to win to go through, and even then it's not certain.
Method #1: Win against the
Magmortars, and then make it through on point difference or by certain losses:
If the
Rends win and the
Huntails and
Cinccinos series, ends in one of the teams winning, the
Rends are guaranteed in.
If the
Rends win and the
Ribombies lose, the
Rends are guaranteed in.
If the
Rends win and the
Ribombies tie or win, and the
Huntails vs
Cinccinos series is a tie, the
Rends need to win 6-2 to get in, edging out either the
Rimbombies or the
Cinccinos (depending on whether or not the
Bombies win).
Method #2: Tie and have both of the
Cinccinos or
Ribombies implode, and a
Dedennes loss.
If the
Rends tie, then the
Magmortars will still be ahead of them so they need the
Ribombies AND the
Cinccinos to both have 6-2 and 7-1 losses respectively (since they have the tiebreaker against the
Bombies). Additionally, the
Dedennes can't win as this would put them ahead of the
Rends.
A tough spot for the
Rends but at least they know that a big win will guarantee them their playoff spot.
Destructive Dedennes
Record: 1-2-3
Points: 5
Differential: -3
At 5 points, only a big win will do it for the
Dedennes. Even then, they need a lot to go right. Here's how it lines up!
Method #1: Win big against the
Milkers and:
Right now there are three teams on 7 and one on 8. The
Dedennes, who can max out at 7, need some low-point differential teams to finish on 7 so that they can leapfrog them.
Unfortunately for them, the two 6-point teams, the
Rends and
Mags, play against each other, and with the
Mags at a +7 differential, one of these two teams is guaranteed to stay ahead of the
Dennes. This means they need two of the top 4 teams to stay behind.
The above mandates that the
Ribombies lose to the
Scraggies and that the
Huntails vs
Cinccinos series finishes in a win, preferably for the
Huntails. If things unfolded like this, a 6-2 win for the
Dedennes would always get them through.
Alternatively, if the
Ribombies still lose and the
Huntails lose instead, the
Dedennes would have to make up the 9-point differential between the two with their own win score and the
Huntails' loss score, an unlikely outcome.
The road is very tough for the
Dedennes and they need two losses from the top 4 to make it happen, but it's still technically possible.
Unscrupulous Scraggies
Record: 0-4-2
Points: 2
Differential: -14