Luck, much like hail, can be so cold (Warstory)

Below is a ladder battle between me and 8 Ball on the Smogon server. I have to admit that some luck factors into the battle, but it comes to both players and even though it appears, it is clear throughout the battle that strategy and good decisions are more important.


My (Odinwolf) Super Awesome Hail Team:



Rules: Ladder Match, Sleep Clause, Freeze Clause, OHKO Clause, Evasion Clause, Species Clause, Strict Damage Clause

Leftovers and Hail damage will be omitted.

Odinwolf sent out Abomasnow (lvl 100 Abomasnow ?).
8 Ball sent out Abomasnow (lvl 100 Abomasnow ?).
Abomasnow's Snow Warning whipped up a hailstorm!
Hail began to fall!
Abomasnow's Snow Warning whipped up a hailstorm!


Odinwolf: ...
8 Ball: hmmm. lol


8 Ball Poke #1


Hail vs. Hail, Abomasnow vs. Abomasnow. Those of you that read my last warstory know that I lead with a ScarfSnow, which means I’m confident that I can outrun my opponent. However, I don’t run Focus Punch on this set, which means other Abomasnows scare me a bit. Since my scarfed lead is such a good surprise for me later on, I decide to play it safe and switch to something to dodge an incoming Focus Punch.

Odinwolf switched in Froslass (lvl 100 Froslass ?).
8 Ball switched in Flareon (lvl 100 Flareon ?).
The hail continues to fall.
---
Odinwolf switched in Heatran (lvl 100 Heatran ?).
Flareon used Toxic.
It doesn't affect Heatran...


8 Ball Poke #2


Apparently my opponent doesn’t run Focus Punch either and decided to threaten a fire attack with Flareon. Since Froslass supports my team incredibly well, I decide not to risk it and switch to Heatran to absorb the fire attack myself. Instead, I see Toxic, which means he’s probably some kind of team supporter. To my team “team-support” means “go ahead and set up Toxic Spikes”


Odinwolf switched in Tentacruel (lvl 100 Tentacruel ?).
Flareon used Wish.
Flareon made a wish!
The hail continues to fall.
---
8 Ball switched in Starmie (lvl 100 Starmie).
Tentacruel used Toxic Spikes.
Spikes were scattered everywhere!
Toxic Spikes were scattered around the foe's team!
The wish came true!
The hail continues to fall.
Tentacruel restored 6% of its health.
---


8 Ball Poke #3


And now I see one of only two pokemon that my team fears: Starmie. To say that I am Starmie weak is an understatement. Thunderbolt destroys Tenta and Walrein while Surf obliterates Heatran and Mamoswine. Abomasnow can beat it, but Starmie usually just switches out in fear of a Grass attack. That leaves only Froslass who can safely threaten it with a Thunderbolt of my own, but again, Starmie can just run to threaten me another time.

In this case, expecting the Thunderbolt, I switch to Mamoswine while I decide what to do to bring Starmie down. If its Scarfed, it’ll be forced to switch out and I can go right back to Tenta. If not, I’ll have to go down another path to eliminate the starfish poke.


Odinwolf switched in Mamoswine (lvl 100 Mamoswine ?).
Starmie used Thunderbolt.
It doesn't affect Mamoswine...
The hail continues to fall.
---
Odinwolf switched in Tentacruel (lvl 100 Tentacruel ?).
Starmie used Rapid Spin.
Starmie blew away the spikes!
Tentacruel lost 4% of its health.
The hail continues to fall.
---


Not scarfed. This is bad news. Rapid Spin also means that if I end up sacrificing Tenta at some point, I lose the chance to use toxic spikes against him. I’m going to have to threaten it out with Abomasnow and risk giving up the scarf surprise early in the match.


Odinwolf switched in Mamoswine (lvl 100 Mamoswine ?).
Starmie used Thunderbolt.
It doesn't affect Mamoswine...
The hail continues to fall.
---
Odinwolf switched in Abomasnow (lvl 100 Abomasnow ?).
Abomasnow's Snow Warning whipped up a hailstorm!
Starmie used Surf.
It's not very effective...
Abomasnow lost 24% of its health.
---


Now, I’m fairly certain that 8 Ball will make the safe move and switch out, but just in case, I’m going to go ahead and Wood Hammer on the chance he stays in. If each of us play it safe, it also establishes a “flow” for the battle of safe moves that I can exploit later on in prediction wars.


8 Ball switched in Garchomp (lvl 100 Garchomp ?).
Abomasnow used Wood Hammer.
Garchomp lost 33% of its health.
Abomasnow was hit by recoil!
Abomasnow lost 14% of its health.
---
Odinwolf switched in Heatran (lvl 100 Heatran ?).
Garchomp used Stone Edge.
Heatran lost 27% of its health.
---


8 Ball Poke #4



I take a slight risk here by going to Heatran and it pays off. With Garchomp coming in to face my Abomasnow, I generally expect a Fire attack. Dragon attacks are possible, which Heatran would wall effectively as well. However, if Garchomp makes any kind of prediction or is scarfed and feels confident in the 2HKO against my Abomasnow, EQ could have been possible and I could have been in trouble. Since Fire won’t be effective, I go with Earth Power this turn to threaten both Starmie and Garchomp.


8 Ball switched in Starmie (lvl 100 Starmie).
Heatran used Earth Power.
Starmie lost 54% of its health.
Heatran lost 10% of its health.
---
Odinwolf switched in Abomasnow (lvl 100 Abomasnow ?).
Abomasnow's Snow Warning whipped up a hailstorm!
Starmie used Recover.
Starmie restored 50% of its health.
The hail continues to fall.
---


I know how the next few moves will probably play out, but I want to make sure that my opponent is maintaining a “safe move” pattern before I start using prediction to my benefit.

Odinwolf switched in Walrein (lvl 100 Walrein ?).
8 Ball switched in Flareon (lvl 100 Flareon ?).
The hail continues to fall.
Walrein absorbed the hail!
---
Walrein used Protect.
Walrein protected itself!
Flareon used Toxic.
Walrein protected itself!
The hail continues to fall.
---


While the switch to Walrein looks like an attempt at “prediction,” I am actually maintaining the “safe move” mentality. He switched Starmie out of Abomasnow in the last go-round, so I switch to something “safe” which would allow my team to start setting up if he made a bad prediction. In doing so, I am trying to keep 8 Ball in the “play safe” mentality so I can feel out his patterns and somehow eliminate Starmie.


Odinwolf switched in Tentacruel (lvl 100 Tentacruel ?).
Flareon used Toxic.
The hail continues to fall.
---


I go back to Tentacruel with the next four turns planned in my head. It will require a sacrifice to get Starmie out of the game, but I can pull it off if 8 Ball keeps playing predictably. The first step is to get down the first layer of spikes and entice him to use Rapid Spin when he feels safe.


8 Ball switched in Starmie (lvl 100 Starmie).
Tentacruel used Toxic Spikes.
Toxic Spikes were scattered around the foe's team!
The hail continues to fall.
---
Odinwolf switched in Mamoswine (lvl 100 Mamoswine ?).
Starmie used Thunderbolt.
It doesn't affect Mamoswine...
The hail continues to fall.
---



The next two turns happen exactly as I plan. I use Toxic Spikes as he brings in Starmie. He uses Thunderbolt to scare Tenta out. By going to Abomasnow, I could yet again force him out. I’ve seen this twice already. But by going to Mamoswine, I know he’ll stay in to spin away the spikes on his “safe” turn as I switch to something else. Instead, I execute the rest of my plan.

Starmie used Rapid Spin.
Starmie blew away the spikes!
Mamoswine lost 4% of its health.
Mamoswine used Earthquake.
Starmie lost 76% of its health.
The hail continues to fall.
---



My Mamoswine carries Stone Edge, which probably would have OHKOed his Starmie. I don’t want to risk the miss and end the “play it safe” theme to the battle before Starmie dies. Otherwise I’ll get stuck in a “prediction war” each time I switch, especially since he has scarier pokes. So I go with STAB EQ to bring him within Hail/Ice Shard range. I probably won’t KO him with Ice Shard, but I should get him below 5%. After he OHKOs Mamoswine with surf, hail will eliminate him and my team will have some breathing room.


Mamoswine used Ice Shard.
It's not very effective...
Starmie lost 15% of its health.
Starmie used Surf.
Starmie's attack missed!
The hail continues to fall.
Starmie is pelted by hail!
Starmie lost 5% of its health.
8 Ball's Starmie fainted.
---


Snow Cloak activates and proves that once again, luck favors the aggressive. Now, not only do did I eliminate his biggest threat, but I got to keep my sweeper as well.


8 Ball: oh no! thats probably gg
8 Ball: snow cloak generally is on my side lol
Odinwolf: even if you killed Mamo, Starmie was gone
Odinwolf: which is what I was going for


I’ve seen enough people trying to be deceptive in chat logs to assume its GG in my favor. Sadly, I make a silly mistake in the next exchange that will weaken my team significantly.

8 Ball switched in Abomasnow (lvl 100 Abomasnow ?).
Abomasnow's Snow Warning whipped up a hailstorm!
Odinwolf switched in Heatran (lvl 100 Heatran ?).
Abomasnow used Wood Hammer.
It's not very effective...
Heatran lost 9% of its health.
Abomasnow was hit by recoil!
Abomasnow lost 3% of its health.
The hail continues to fall.
---
Abomasnow used Protect.
Abomasnow protected itself!
Heatran used Flamethrower.
Abomasnow protected itself!
The hail continues to fall.
---
8 Ball switched in Flareon (lvl 100 Flareon ?).
Heatran used Flamethrower.
Flareon's Flash Fire raised its fire power!
---
Heatran used Earth Power.
It's super effective!
Flareon lost 60% of its health.
Heatran lost 10% of its health.
Flareon used Wish.
Flareon made a wish!
---
Flareon used Protect.
Flareon protected itself!
Heatran used Earth Power.
Flareon protected itself!
The wish came true!
Flareon restored 50% of its health.
The hail continues to fall.
Heatran is pelted by hail!
Heatran lost 1% of its health.
Odinwolf's Heatran fainted.
Flareon is pelted by hail!
Flareon lost 6% of its health.
Flareon's leftovers restored its health a little!
Flareon restored 6% of its health.
---



I get a careless with Heatran and let LO/Hail damage eliminate him while Flareon heals up. This is a critical mistake, but I won’t realize it until he reveals his last couple pokes.

Odinwolf switched in Tentacruel (lvl 100 Tentacruel ?).
8 Ball switched in Garchomp (lvl 100 Garchomp ?).
Tentacruel used Toxic Spikes.
Toxic Spikes were scattered around the foe's team!
The hail continues to fall.
Tentacruel is pelted by hail!
Tentacruel lost 6% of its health.
Garchomp is pelted by hail!
Garchomp lost 6% of its health.
Tentacruel's leftovers restored its health a little!
Tentacruel restored 6% of its health.
Garchomp's leftovers restored its health a little!
Garchomp restored 6% of its health.
---


I know that Garchomp has Stone Edge based on my last encounter with him and since I saw leftovers recovery, I know he’s not carrying a scarf. If he was scarfed, he would outrun Tentacruel AND my scarfed Abomasnow, so I’d have to try to take him down with Ice Shard Mamoswine. Since he’s not, barring any surprises, Tentacruel will get the second layer of spikes down, die to Stone Edge or Earthquake and then Abomasnow can finish him off.

Tentacruel used Toxic Spikes.
Toxic Spikes were scattered around the foe's team!
Garchomp used Earthquake.
It's super effective!
Tentacruel lost 96% of its health.
Odinwolf's Tentacruel fainted.
The hail continues to fall.
---
Odinwolf switched in Abomasnow (lvl 100 Abomasnow ?).
Abomasnow's Snow Warning whipped up a hailstorm!



8 Ball: im in deep trouble now
Odinwolf: got both layers
Odinwolf: gg
8 Ball: yeah

Things go according to plan. I now have four pokemon that can eliminate his Garchomp with ease (Abomasnow, Froslass, Mamoswine, Walrein). He still has Flareon, Garchomp and two unrevealed pokes. However, with Toxic Spikes down, Starmie out of the game and Stallrein perfectly healthy, I’m in the drivers seat.

8 Ball switched in Flareon (lvl 100 Flareon ?).
Flareon was badly poisoned!
Flareon was badly poisoned by the Toxic Spikes!
Abomasnow used Blizzard.
It's not very effective...
Flareon lost 14% of its health.
---
Odinwolf switched in Froslass (lvl 100 Froslass ?).
Flareon used Fire Fang.
Flareon's attack missed!
Flareon is hurt by poison!
Flareon lost 12% of its health.
---


8 Ball: wow
Odinwolf: well, that's helpful

Snow Cloak activates again and I get a free turn with Froslass. The luck is helpful, but Froslass is sashed and faster than Flareon, so I would be getting at least one attack anyways. Combined with Toxic damage, the overall benefit of this Snow Cloak is negligible.


Froslass used Thunderbolt.
Flareon lost 18% of its health.
Flareon used Fire Fang.
It's super effective!
Froslass lost 85% of its health.
Flareon is hurt by poison!
Flareon lost 18% of its health.
---
Odinwolf switched in Walrein (lvl 100 Walrein ?).
Flareon used Fire Fang.
Walrein lost 19% of its health.
Flareon is hurt by poison!
Flareon lost 22% of its health.
8 Ball's Flareon fainted.
---

I use Walrein to wall the hit and keep Froslass alive in case there is a Heracross or Machamp waiting in one of those unrevealed spots.


8 Ball switched in Abomasnow (lvl 100 Abomasnow ?).
Abomasnow's Snow Warning whipped up a hailstorm!
Abomasnow was badly poisoned!
Abomasnow was badly poisoned by the Toxic Spikes!
Walrein used Protect.
Walrein protected itself!
Abomasnow used Leech Seed.
Walrein protected itself!
Abomasnow is hurt by poison!
Abomasnow lost 6% of its health.
---
Odinwolf switched in Froslass (lvl 100 Froslass ?).
Abomasnow used Wood Hammer.
Froslass lost 15% of its health.
Odinwolf's Froslass fainted.
Abomasnow was hit by recoil!
Abomasnow lost 4% of its health.
The hail continues to fall.
Abomasnow is hurt by poison!
Abomasnow lost 12% of its health.
---


Not wanting Walrein to get seeded, I switch to Froslass, take a hit and waste a turn of Toxic damage. Now Mamoswine needs to put that Starmie miss from earlier to good use.

Odinwolf switched in Mamoswine (lvl 100 Mamoswine ?).
Mamoswine used Stone Edge.
It's super effective!
A critical hit!
Abomasnow lost 75% of its health.
8 Ball's Abomasnow fainted.
The hail continues to fall.
---


I decide to take the risk with Stone Edge this time and it works in my favor. The crit was totally unnecessary, but I’m glad I’ve got another poke down on his side.

8 Ball switched in Walrein (lvl 100 Walrein ?).
Walrein was badly poisoned!
Walrein was badly poisoned by the Toxic Spikes!
Odinwolf: then you have a chance
Mamoswine used Stone Edge.
It's super effective!
A critical hit!
Walrein lost 100% of its health.
8 Ball's Walrein fainted.
The hail continues to fall.
---


8 Ball Poke #5 (Dead in a Hurry!)


Now I’m starting to feel a little bad about the luck. That crit gets rid of at least 3 turns of effort his Walrein could have put into the battle. Had he survived and started stalling behind a sub, I would have switched my own Stallrein in on a Protect turn and Roared him out. If he won the speed tie, he’d still be dead in a turn or two from Toxic damage and, at best, waste a few PP off Mamo’s Stone Edge.


8 Ball switched in Mamoswine* (lvl 100 Mamoswine ?).
Mamoswine* was badly poisoned!
Mamoswine* was badly poisoned by the Toxic Spikes!
Mamoswine* used Earthquake.
Mamoswine lost 88% of its health.
Mamoswine* lost 10% of its health.
Mamoswine used Earthquake.
Mamoswine's attack missed!
The hail continues to fall.
Mamoswine* is hurt by poison!
Mamoswine* lost 6% of its health.
---


Odinwolf: lol

8 Ball Poke #6
*

His final poke revealed, I am now a little worried that this game is not in the bag. Mamoswine could stone edge Abomasnow and Walrein to death if the luck turns completely in his favor. I decide to let Mamoswine die this turn to keep him feeling safe. Then I’ll bring in Abomasnow and finally use my scarf to surprise him and KO with Wood Hammer.

Mamoswine* used Ice Shard.
Mamoswine lost 8% of its health.
Odinwolf's Mamoswine fainted.
Mamoswine* lost 10% of its health.
The hail continues to fall.
Mamoswine* is hurt by poison!
Mamoswine* lost 12% of its health.
---


Odinwolf: snow cloak FTW?
8 Ball: we'll see


Odinwolf switched in Abomasnow (lvl 100 Abomasnow ?).
Abomasnow's Snow Warning whipped up a hailstorm!
Abomasnow used Wood Hammer.
Abomasnow's attack missed!
Mamoswine* used Stone Edge.
It's super effective!
Abomasnow lost 62% of its health.
Odinwolf's Abomasnow fainted.
Mamoswine* lost 10% of its health.
The hail continues to fall.
Mamoswine* is hurt by poison!
Mamoswine* lost 18% of its health.
---



8 Ball: lol
Odinwolf: woah!
8 Ball: yep
Odinwolf: doesn't matter. poison finishes you this turn (I hope!)
8 Ball: we'll see


Odinwolf switched in Walrein (lvl 100 Walrein ?).
Walrein used Protect.
Walrein protected itself!
Mamoswine* used Stone Edge.
Walrein protected itself!
The hail continues to fall.
Walrein absorbed the hail!
Mamoswine* is hurt by poison!
Mamoswine* lost 24% of its health.
---


8 Ball: are you sure?


For some reason, I was expecting 32% out of Toxic that turn and now Mamoswine has 9% and I’m worried that those two Snow Cloak activations just won him the game. I don’t want to Protect again this turn because Mamoswine will definitely die and I want at least one turn of safety against Garchomp.

Mamoswine* used Stone Edge.
It's super effective!
Walrein lost 62% of its health.
Mamoswine lost 9% of its health.
8 Ball's Mamoswine* fainted.
Walrein used Blizzard.
But there was no target!
---


Odinwolf: uh oh

I realize my mistake as soon as I clicked the button, but it was too late. I should have used Sub that turn. Blizzard wasn’t going to help get the KO and with a sub up, I could have had a totally free pass to eliminate Garchomp. Now I’ve got to hope that luck plays a minimal factor on the last two turns.


8 Ball switched in Garchomp (lvl 100 Garchomp ?).
Garchomp was badly poisoned!
Garchomp was badly poisoned by the Toxic Spikes!


8 Ball: gg
I’m sure if he’s GG’ing the win to me or to himself, but this match it not over. Stone Edge could do a LOT of damage if it hits and I’m sitting at 50%, so I’m protecting this turn to give myself the best shot possible at surviving the last turn.


Walrein used Protect.
But it failed!
Garchomp used Stone Edge.
Garchomp's attack missed!
The hail continues to fall.
Garchomp is hurt by poison!
Garchomp lost 6% of its health.
Walrein's leftovers restored its health a little!
Walrein restored 6% of its health.
---
Garchomp used Stone Edge.
It's super effective!
Walrein lost 39% of its health.
Walrein used Blizzard.
It's super effective!
Garchomp lost 61% of its health.
8 Ball's Garchomp fainted.
Odinwolf wins!



Stone Edge does what I can only assume is minimum damage and I KO with Blizzard for the win. Luck factored in at a few critical moments of the match and swung the momentum of the battle both ways, but ultimately strategy prevailed. By eliminating Starmie and getting down both layers of spikes, I gave myself the necessary edge to win the battle.

Props
Mamoswine for being a total beast for both teams
Tentacruel for doing his job and getting both layers of spikes down
8 Ball for being a great opponent, being cool about the luck factors and letting me warstory this
Snow Cloak ;)

Slops
Heatran & Starmie
Snow Cloak :(
 
This is a nice warstory, but the time both of you 2 had a Mamo out I got a bit confused. And first post ftw. Where is 8 Ball's team?
 

Stellar

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I really enjoyed the comments in this. This is one of the few warstories that I have read completely. Congrats on winning, great predictions, and a great warstory. :)
 
That's a rather unique pairing of two hail teams heh.

That was great how you managed to take out starmie, good strategy thinking there.

Overall pretty good warstory. Nice comments
 
At points in the story with your Mamoswine, you seemed to think that a neutral Stone Edge would do more than your neutral STAB EQ.

They have the same original base power, and with STAB backing up Earthquake, it would have been more powerful in all cases where they're both neutral.

Good war story overall, though.
 

Pocket

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Great Warstory, it came right down to the wire =d. Loved your strategic sacrifices and risks you took. I am guessing your second Pokemon you have trouble with is Tentacruel (seeing how it can absorb Toxi-Spikes)?

Also, Flamethrower would do more damage than Fire Fang in general; unless it's for Blissey, the special move would be a more appropriate move for Flareon.
 
Nice warstory, and it was good to see a player that kept a strategy in effect even after missing attacks they had planned on hitting.

Good job playing around Starmie and still getting your spikes down, that's what ultimately won the match for you.
 
when i rea;ised how much you'd read, i felt obliged to read it haha. nice battle, bad luck but good win
 

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