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Lockdown Mafia 2: Hail To The Chief - Game Over, Mafia Wins!
- Thread starter Seven Deadly Sins
- Start date
Okay, so what happened is that RaRe555 asked two questions about how the inspector should play, which seemed to CIM to be tantamount to be admitting to be the inspector and asking what to do. It became clear that Chris is angry enough to burst a vein in his forehead. I'm not all all certain that I would interpret the exchange between RaRe555 and HD the way that Chris has (RaRe555 might just have been asking), but it definitely makes it way too risky to lynch RaRe555! That means, of course, that I need to change my vote.
Looking through the last couple of pages, I am a little more confident about voting for Tyranidos. Specifically, he posted this
Looking through the last couple of pages, I am a little more confident about voting for Tyranidos. Specifically, he posted this
to say that he was against lynching thunda, because he believed Mekkah. Then after two nondescript posts by Mekkah, Johann posts, voting Tyranidos. Af first Tyranidos freaks out, revenge-voting Johann. Two posts later, he suddenly and inexplicably announces
in other words, he flip-flops and votes against what he had already claimed was likely (that thunda is just trolling) in a state of panic over the possibility of being lynched. His reason for flip-flopping? "If thunda is mafia, then so is mekkah". Not exactly logic that inspires me with confidence. So I'll change my vote to fire Tyranidos.
Pretty sure when he said "No problem" that cleared up any ambiguity anyone might have had.
#1 mistake in NOC games is that people think they can be "subtle" so that non mafia get it but the mafia doesn't. A completely unprovoked question about what the inspector is supposed to do is the equivalent of going "is 5 of the same suit good?" in a game of texas hold 'em. Goddammit.
Though to be fair, I didn't read his comment about inspections above that, so it was a bit of a premature jump maybe?
Anyway since you're "outed" might as well list confirmed innocents.
#1 mistake in NOC games is that people think they can be "subtle" so that non mafia get it but the mafia doesn't. A completely unprovoked question about what the inspector is supposed to do is the equivalent of going "is 5 of the same suit good?" in a game of texas hold 'em. Goddammit.
Though to be fair, I didn't read his comment about inspections above that, so it was a bit of a premature jump maybe?
Anyway since you're "outed" might as well list confirmed innocents.
Didn't think of that one. That'd be clever though, I guess.
Now the clever thing to do if you actually thought that was true would be to wait until RaRae555 lists "confirmed innocents" then have the real inspector roleclaim and bam, you have a list of the Mafia. If that were at all true, I mean.
anyway hasn't it been, like, 5 days?
3 actually. And RaRe555 may not be inspect. He might be free agent.
Wow, I can't believe CIM actually thinks I'm retarded enough to claim inspector. :| I may be incompetent and inexperienced and anything you might call me, but I wouldn't screw up THAT bad.
No, I haven't claimed anything, I said "No problem" because i though CIM was joking or something, but I honestly didn't think he was serious when he said I had pretty much claimed inspector.
I only said what i said on my post because when I went through the thread I remembered the discussions about when the inspector should claim.
Conclusion: I AM NOT FUCKING INSPECTOR CHRIS IS ME, I AM NOT.
No, I haven't claimed anything, I said "No problem" because i though CIM was joking or something, but I honestly didn't think he was serious when he said I had pretty much claimed inspector.
I only said what i said on my post because when I went through the thread I remembered the discussions about when the inspector should claim.
Conclusion: I AM NOT FUCKING INSPECTOR CHRIS IS ME, I AM NOT.
RaRe555, if you are the inspector, don't pretend not to be. Chances are you're getting nightkilled this night anyway, so if you really are the inspector, we need you to confirm so that the free agent can bodyguard you.
I see two possible arguments for when the inspector should claim:
1.) The inspector should wait as long as possible to claim, so that we have as much information as possible when he does claim. He only has two nights to work with, and the inspector is such a valuable resource in non-cardflip games that to claim now would be stupid.
2.) The inspector should claim sometime in the next couple of days because as the game progresses, the chance of either the inspector or the free agent dying raise.
Let's say we hit one mafia with our lynches including this one (to make the math easier). That would mean that by tomorrow, 5 villagers have died. The game started with 15 villagers, meaning this:
There is a 1/3 chance that the inspector is already dead.
There is a 1/3 chance that the free agent is already dead.
There is a 5/9 chance (over half!!) that either of them is dead
If we assume that the inspector would have stopped the lynch on himself:
There is a 1/5 chance the inspector is dead
There is a 1/3 chance the free agent is dead
There is a 7/15 chance that either of them is dead
When do we get the inspector to claim? How long can we risk having the inspector not claim?
EDIT: whoever changed the thread title i love you
I see two possible arguments for when the inspector should claim:
1.) The inspector should wait as long as possible to claim, so that we have as much information as possible when he does claim. He only has two nights to work with, and the inspector is such a valuable resource in non-cardflip games that to claim now would be stupid.
2.) The inspector should claim sometime in the next couple of days because as the game progresses, the chance of either the inspector or the free agent dying raise.
Let's say we hit one mafia with our lynches including this one (to make the math easier). That would mean that by tomorrow, 5 villagers have died. The game started with 15 villagers, meaning this:
There is a 1/3 chance that the inspector is already dead.
There is a 1/3 chance that the free agent is already dead.
There is a 5/9 chance (over half!!) that either of them is dead
If we assume that the inspector would have stopped the lynch on himself:
There is a 1/5 chance the inspector is dead
There is a 1/3 chance the free agent is dead
There is a 7/15 chance that either of them is dead
When do we get the inspector to claim? How long can we risk having the inspector not claim?
EDIT: whoever changed the thread title i love you
That was exactly my point with the post in the which I supposedly claimed inspector, but it seems I didn't make myself clear.
I am not inspector, and I'm not pretending not to be inspector. If I die tonight, at least I'd be giving the real inspector/free agent another night alive. And if I don't, mafia is fail.
I'm going to take it upon myself to do a vote tally:
Tyranidos
askaninjask, Johann, Mekkah, HD, reachzero, Chris is me, jumpluff
RaRe555
Ace Matador, billymills
jermy
RaRe555
Johann
Tyranidos
Apologies for any mistakes, but I'm trying to give a clearer picture of what's going on for anyone who's as puzzled as I am. The night update is soon, I think. However, I'd like to point out something Tyranidos said awhile ago - 'if thunda is mafia, so is Mekkah'. How would Tyranidos know who is mafia? There are only a few people in this game who would know: inspector and mafia. Given all the evidence, I think I can safely say Tyranidos isn't inspector, so fire Tyranidos.
Tyranidos
askaninjask, Johann, Mekkah, HD, reachzero, Chris is me, jumpluff
RaRe555
Ace Matador, billymills
jermy
RaRe555
Johann
Tyranidos
Apologies for any mistakes, but I'm trying to give a clearer picture of what's going on for anyone who's as puzzled as I am. The night update is soon, I think. However, I'd like to point out something Tyranidos said awhile ago - 'if thunda is mafia, so is Mekkah'. How would Tyranidos know who is mafia? There are only a few people in this game who would know: inspector and mafia. Given all the evidence, I think I can safely say Tyranidos isn't inspector, so fire Tyranidos.
yeah yeah (also thanks jumpluff for vote tally)
Despite the air of authority that he tried to put on, Tyranidos was fired from the Bluecorp board of directors. He says it's not all bad, as he's always wanted to have an excuse to pursue his life-long dream of becoming an alligator wrangler!
Tyranidos has been fired. It is now Night 3.
Despite the air of authority that he tried to put on, Tyranidos was fired from the Bluecorp board of directors. He says it's not all bad, as he's always wanted to have an excuse to pursue his life-long dream of becoming an alligator wrangler!
Tyranidos has been fired. It is now Night 3.
Rumors abound that billymills has been photogrphed on multiple occasions purchasing and consuming the meat of the Koala Bear. He is said to be purchasing it from a group of avid Koala hunters from Nigeria, and even though the meat is gamey and not especially delicious, billymills appears to have been caught on tape saying, "I love the idea that something cute and cuddly has died for my enjoyment. I hope it suffered before it died." Needless to say, billymills will need to take some involuntary time off from his position on the Bluecorp board of directors.
billymills has been forced to resign. It is now Day 4.
billymills has been forced to resign. It is now Day 4.
No billyroll :( Okay, let's start this day on a discussion generating note. I'd like everyone posting to answer this. Assuming inspector is still alive, do you think he should claim? Should it depend on his results? I think if he found at least one evil guy that's still alive, now would be the time to claim it. We get 2 more results out of that, possibly a third if the bg is alive and outpredicts the mafia in some way or another.
My personal view is that the inspector should claim now - I wouldn't want to take the 1/8 chance (worst-case scenario) of being killed night 4, and letting all that information go to waste. Of course, if they did wait, we could get even more info, but I don't think I'd want to take that chance.
The inspector's got to ask him/herself one question: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-oinyjsk0
The inspector's got to ask him/herself one question: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-oinyjsk0
Inspector should claim as soon as they get a positive - no sooner in my opinion.
By the way, having the inspector claim is way less useful than you'd think without cardflip. We have no idea if he's the real inspector, and if the mafia has a fake claim first, then you're fucked. Actually, if the mafia goes "but wait I'm the real inspector!" you're just as fucked. There's not much of a safe way to claim. With cardflip you can do a claim, lynch who he says, and immediately figure out if he's lying. Here you really can't.
Information in this game is going to be a pleasant surprise, not something the town should expect to work with. It's informed minority versus uninformed majority for a reason.
@SDS: Cardflip next game please.
By the way, having the inspector claim is way less useful than you'd think without cardflip. We have no idea if he's the real inspector, and if the mafia has a fake claim first, then you're fucked. Actually, if the mafia goes "but wait I'm the real inspector!" you're just as fucked. There's not much of a safe way to claim. With cardflip you can do a claim, lynch who he says, and immediately figure out if he's lying. Here you really can't.
Information in this game is going to be a pleasant surprise, not something the town should expect to work with. It's informed minority versus uninformed majority for a reason.
@SDS: Cardflip next game please.
@CIM: blow me
But really, I may or may not have cardflip next game depending on how this one turns out.
But really, I may or may not have cardflip next game depending on how this one turns out.
We have quite a bit of information by this point accumulated by this point, almost everyone has a track record of some kind. Not only do we risk the inspector's death by waiting too long, we risk the free agent doctor's death as well, which would be almost as bad. If the inspector has only 1-2 results and both are clean (the other inspection targets being dead) or something like that, it wouldn't be a good idea to claim, but if there is a guilty result, that would help a lot to establish patterns, and now is really not too early. To be honest, we really don't know how we are doing, who is winning or losing, etc. So yeah, I think it'd be wise for the inspector to claim soon, before he/she or the doctor dies, and before it is too late to do much with the information we gather.
This is the sad truth. Would be even worse if inspector is dead and mafioso decide to claim. The only way to figure out if the guy is speaking the truth would probably be to lynch who he says, then if the kill that night fails (I'm assuming mafia is not allowed to idle the kill), we know what's up.
This is assuming the bodyguard is alive too. :(
I think the inspector should claim when he catches a mafia, otherwise no. Also, when and if the inspector claims, and if he outs his innocents, we'll have a smaller less people to choose from for our lynch target, so we have a smaller chance to lynch a fellow villager, and if he got some important PR and the PR died, and somebody claims that PR (mainly the free agent) we will know one mafia, and from there we can compare voting patterns and stuff to find out possible partners. It'd be mostly good for the inspector to claim, but I guess it's up to him and his results.
Well, if their kill fails, then obviously the bodyguard is alive. There's no need for them to randomly take a nosedive at askaninjask since the chances of that working are almost nil.