(1) Miami Heat versus (2) Boston Celtics
This will be a conference finals rematch dating back to 2020. Both teams are mirror images of each other, so this is expected to be a heavy switching series which makes this extremely dependent on one-on-one matchups in the half-court. The essential question is, who can consistently score in the half-court and get their favored matchups the easiest?
The first key player/match-up I’ll say is Horford versus Bam. Horford was absent in the 2020 series, and Horford has proven to be a capable defender. If you can do a decent job on Giannis and Embiid, why couldn’t you be able to have success against Bam? If Horford can match Bam in production during their minutes shared, I see this in Boston’s favor. I don’t think there’s any other big on Boston’s roster that could make as much of an impact as Horford except maybe Robin Williams. Bam needs to prove he’s grown the past couple of years, and I’ll be disappointed if I’m right about Horford being able to maintain him. It would be yet another year Bam fails to show any growth in offensive ability.
In order for Miami to take advantage of Boston’s heavy switching, Bam has to be aggressive too on who switches onto him. If he can’t gain an advantage against Horford, he absolutely needs to take advantage if it’s a wing defender. Keep a close eye on how Bam performs.
Comparing both team’s wing players, Boston has a bit more in overall offensive and shooting depth that’s spread out throughout the roster. Miami’s depth is more of a mystery to me, because they’ve plugged in guy after guy throughout the season. Their offense is a little bit questionable at times especially if Herro is not having a good game. The other potential problem this brings is that Herro will be targeted every single time he’s on the floor. If it ever becomes an issue, Spoelstra will be in a tough push-and-pull of trading offense for defense.
Lowry and Smart don’t seem 100% even if they do play. Lowry hasn’t had a good productive run for almost the entire year; you must wonder if that will come back to bite them. Vincent and Strus are great players and could still turn the series in Miami’s favor, but I must admit Miami won’t reach their peak overall without a healthy Lowry. Like the Milwaukee/Boston series, having a secondary playmaker or second point of attack makes a huge difference against this Boston defense. Much of the load is going to have to go to Butler and Bam. Butler can do fine, but Bam must find a crack in Boston’s switching.
So… that leaves me to wonder about Oladipo, who has pretty much been okay. I have no idea what to expect out of him in this series, but he could change Miami’s offensive blueprint. Oladipo against switches historically has been a success for him; I just haven’t seen him take over offensively in almost four years.
I think that depending on who you believe is more likely to accumulate their marginal advantages like turnovers, half-court scoring, rebounding, etc, that’s who you pick. I somewhat favor Boston here. Miami’s point-guard play is slightly dubious, Boston’s three-point shooting is a potential marginal advantage that’s hard to combat, and I don’t quite think Bam is going to make the impact he needs.
Miami wins if: Bam proves his growth, and offensively exploits Boston’s switching defense. Butler finds his match-up within the seams and finds as many easy baskets off of turnovers and defense. Miami’s point-guard play is at least decent, and Herro breaks even with his offensive and defensive output. Boston is unable to score against Miami’s defense and is constantly defending run-outs. Boston can beat Spoelstra's zone.
Boston wins if: They were the better three-point shooting team, the better switching team, had an easier time exploiting Miami’s switching defense, and Horford turns back the clock. Miami’s offense regressed in the half-court.
(4) Dallas Mavericks versus (3) Golden State Warriors
This series is going to be interesting, because it’s going to be the first time Curry faces a team most like the LeBron-lead Cleveland teams of the past.
I am certain Kidd will have Luka attack the head of the snake by forcing Curry to defend as much as possible. He did this to Mitchell and Paul in the previous rounds. Kidd believes the key to winning is by tiring out the opposing number one player on the team through making them defend all series. Kerr is no stranger to this; he played Cleveland for four years and had to combat this strategy. It helps Golden State to be very familiar with this strategy, but it does not help that Curry is also older since then.
What is Kerr likely to do? Stay home on corner threes and force Luka to beat you by scoring 50. Golden State needs to also limit Dinwiddie and Brunson as they are the only other playmakers on the team, most importantly Dinwiddie because of his size. The defense of Thompson and Poole will be tested. Thankfully for them, Otto Porter seems healthy enough to play. Wiggins and Porter are their most solid defensive wings for this series although let’s be real, they don’t stand a chance in guarding Luka anyway. Wiggins will make or break his career here because he has a very simple role that’s hard to truly fail. Both Porter and Wiggins just need to make their shots when Curry/Thompson are trapped. Green is good too for switches; even when it may come to Luka. The true concern for Golden State on defense however is that… they are one of the most foul-prone teams in the league, and Luka drawing fouls on multiple guys is setting your defense up to fail. If Luka can get Green, Poole, Curry, or Thompson in foul trouble, that would significantly impact Golden State both offensively and defensively. They need as many passers and shooters as possible against this defense.
Golden State will need to take care of the ball better than they have in the playoffs this series. Currently, they are one of the worst teams in the playoffs this year turning it over and points off turnovers. Dallas is only behind Memphis in forcing turnovers, and they managed to make Phoenix, one of the least turnover-prone teams with a legendary efficient point guard, turn it over like crazy. If Golden State gives up well over 15 possessions a game, you can’t expect to beat Dallas with the defenders on their roster.
So ultimately, this series is about pace. Can Golden State play an up-tempo game without turning it over too much and try to tire Luka out with their trio of guards, or will Dallas have Luka continuously score at ease and keep Golden State in the half-court?
… I actually strongly lean Dallas, and this is not a slight against Golden State. I need Golden State to prove to me a couple of things before I feel good about their chances. I have never seen them *not* turn the ball over too much, and we’re asking them to keep the pace up while taking care of the ball against a defense containing this many wings with length, IQ, and shooting. We’re also asking Wiggins, Porter, and Thompson to bother Luka. Golden State in my opinion has weaker wing defensive depth than Phoenix. Also, Curry is 34, and does a ton of work offensively for this team compared to Dallas’ past point-guard matchups. He hasn’t shot like his old self, and I’m not sure if this Dallas team has as many easy targets for him to feast on.
I just think Golden State overall has a smaller room for error than Dallas when it comes to both offense and defense.
Golden State wins if: Curry, Poole, and Klay can defend well enough against Doncic to make their combined offense worth it. Green is aggressive when guys play off of him. Golden State take care of the ball while playing up-tempo basketball and find a way to tire Luka out throughout the series.
Dallas wins if: Luka bodies the Curry, Poole, and Klay line-up like shooting monkeys in a barrel. Dallas keeps the game in the half-court and takes advantage of Golden State’s turnovers. Curry is significantly impacted by being targeted by Luka. Golden State’s defense overall is too limited to contain Luka.
Dallas in six