NOC OC NOC GAME OVER - Now Despair

[Former]

Re: Blazade, iirc it was you, me and jalmont on that lynch with 1 vote on jalmont. So to get a 2 person lynch, one of us would have had to switch over. I guess your denying the town cred from that and that's fair (I mean, I entirely forgot and that's why I kept my vote on Texas...)

I'm a conditional vig with a bpv. When I lose my bpv I gain a vig shot the next night that can't be roleblocked or redirected (which is why I believe blazade's claim as the only way to stop my kill is with a BG, or a BPV I guess). If I then use my shot to hit a scum, I get a new BPV the next night but if I hit a townie I die with the townie. I also had 3 kill self-redirects that I used up without any helpfulness.

 

[Martin]

im slightly uneasy with that claim man; if you're a vig you could very easily be slightly bending ur role to make you sound towny and hide the potential of you being the person killing people each night (the killing town=death one)

I know I said I'd vote for whoever the rest of town was on even if it were myself, but given that I know my own role and as such what my flip will be before anyone else here does and as such know that me dying will be a free death for scum, I'm going to vote for anyone i have even a shred of suspicion about at this point. If I die it's not like having a vote on them when I go down can hurt anyway 'cause any suspicion of me won't affect me if I'm dead and flipped anyway.

Vote Former Hope

 

[Former]

If I was a scum, I'm pretty sure I'd use my actual role to fake claim and not just use my kill to fake vig since that connection is super obvious to make.

 

[Martin]

Basically the gameplan from here if I die is as follows: paper's flip will be known to the rest of town unless hitmon/internet have put in some retarded mechanic surrounding revival which isn't made explicit in my role PM (I highly doubt they would but this game's been pretty fucking nuts already so who knows), someone else will be killed tonight, and it then becomes a game of chance which, assuming that the optimal person is killed tonight, becomes a game of chance which is in favor of scum (1/3 chance of being lynched, 2/3 chance of not being lynched, or a 1/2 chance assuming that aubisio's supposed town confirmation isn't based on some doctor (idk when he became conftown 'cause it was probably some time when my alerts weren't working, so yeah idk what its being based on here)).

Considering that I already know I will flip town and therefore also know know with near-complete certainty that Paper is also going to flip town, I know that the way of maximising town's chance of winning here at least from my perspective is to lynch either you or Blazade, to let the night killer do their thing tonight (because then they won't be able to take out a conf town which one person other than oneself knows about without leaving another conf town (aside from possibly Aubisio) on the field) if they don't get killed now, and to then have a 1/2 or 1/1 chance as opposed to a 1/3 or 1/2 chance (depending on which Aubisio assumption we're talking about) of winning on the spot.

If you want to see my flip then I'm not going to try to stop you because it is still technically possible to win with a bit of luck, but honestly like I want to win as much as the rest of town does and from the perspective of the only person who already knows the alignment of both myself and of Paper then it is more optimal to try and take out anyone I have even a shred of suspicion for.

 

[Former]

Aubisio is 'clear' as he's the only person to claim the 2nd mason (iirc the first mason was one of the first deaths or something).

Honestly, for me it's odds. Since Aubisio is cleared as town, it means that either the scum has to be either you/pblade or blazade. Though since we are at 5 people, we can afford to mislynch once between those choices. Thus it becomes the factor of, if we lynch blazade today and it is you/pblade, you two win. If it's somehow blazade, then there's an opportunity to lynch him tomorrow.

Though additionally for you, the case about a "Divine Being" faction is too great. The likelihood for scum using the term in the announce and then it reappearing later is slim (unless they investigated moody early and got that I guess). Texas was town, so it does imply that you would be the opposite side of alpha/omega. However if I'm being honest, between your roles claimed (Day JOAT and role counter) blazade's role does seem far scummier on a strictly role basis. But his actions otherwise have been pretty towny...though so have yours, though to a lesser extent. Tbh, which ever one of you is scum is doing a good job since I have a town read on both of you, it's just the ultimate conclusion of lynch order and assessing threat that makes it easy and methodical to choose who to lynch.

 

[Martin]

i would've thought that texas' flip would completely kill suspicion of that considering that the divine being announcement mentioned "the alpha and the omega" or smth like that and Texas flipped town rather than divine being; but either way i am town and my claim is going to stay that.

If I don't die over you two here and we mislynch, then the night killer has to do one of the following:

• Kill Aubisio, leaving an internally-known town majority of me+PBlade to lynch the one remaining scum.
• Kill me, confirming PBlade's town alignment and leaving 2 conftowns to lynch the one remaining scum.
• Kill PBlade, giving a high certainty of my alignment for the other remaining town and giving us a majority over the remaining scum.
  
• Shoot oneself, winning the game for town.
• Don't kill anyone, leaving 4 people left and requiring 2 consecutive mislynches beyond that point to be put in a position where they won't draw when they perform their nightkill.

If I do die here, then scum have a fixed gameplan which allows them a 50% possibility of victory assuming scum uses their nightkill optimally.

If PBlade dies here then it is the same situation as me dying.

From my position as the person with the most info on the field at this time, the optimal play here is to lynch either you or Blazade. Either you trust me and guarantee victory or you don't trust me and leave a 50% chance of victory. It's ultimately down to you here: do you lynch Blazade for a 100% victory rate (I will switch my lynch off of you if you do just 'cause it doesn't matter which of you dies here provided it is one of you two), or do you lynch me for a coin flip?

 

[Former]

I mean, the announcement itself was probably totally BS. But calling out a faction name as specific as "Divine Being" seems impossible without foreknowledge. Then, considering all the other neutrals up to this point have been factionless, if there was indeed a named neutral faction, then it doesn't seem entirely unreasonable that it would also have a recruit (assuming they started with one person, which now seems likely). There's also the matter of Pblade and his role, iirc it hasn't been used (or at least it hasn't resulted in any deaths) and tbh, I don't think it's entirely unreasonable that he's just a vanillish scum role now. Either way, there is still quite a bit of reason left to suspect a Pblade/You faction.

So with that in mind, it becomes a 50/50 of lynching blazade and then having you win with pblade possibly. Or 100% with lynching you today and if the game doesn't end, lynch either pblade or blazade tomorrow. That said, I probably will think more on this tomorrow as I'm running on no sleep atm.

 

[Samoyed]

Vote Former Hope

 

[Samoyed]

Unvote

Paperblade could you come over here and vote for FH or Blazade? (Or Martin if you actually think he's scum lol)

 

[Blazade]

Aubisio I understand your concerns about martin as well as anyone so I guess the question is do you think there could be 2 scum?

We could vote former if we think he's worse but we straight lose to martin pblade if that's a thing.

I guess the game is, if you trust that it isn't we can investigate former then me and autolose otherwise but if you trust me we can check the two, then former.

Keep in mind that in lylo everyone has to vote correctly.

You have to make thr decision that's right for you.

 

[Martin]

I guess I might as well do a breakdown of just about every possible scenario I can think of here:

• 2 remaining scum, mislynch: Town lose outside of double lynch (scum wouldn't let this happen)
  
• 2 remaining scum, scumlynch: 1/3 chance of town win
  
• 1 remaining scum, me or PBlade gets lynched, Aubisio was telling the truth about his role: me/PBlade's town status is confirmed outside of some dumb recruitment thing if I flip. 50% chance for town win which falls to Aubisio.
  
• 1 remaining scum, Former or Blazade gets lynched, mislynch, Aubisio was telling the truth about his role: Regardless of who gets nightkilled, it is physically impossible for town to lose.
• 1 remaining scum, Former or Blazade gets lynched, scumlynch: Town win
• 1 remaining scum, Former or Blazade gets lynched, mislynch, Aubisio was lying about his role: Aubisio is basically guaranteed to win as a town member gets doubled down on.
• 1 remaining scum, Aubisio gets lynched, mislynch: 1/3 chance of town win
• 1 remaining scum, Aubisio gets lynched, scumlynch: Town win

Did I miss any from my perspective of the game (i.e. not other people's)?

 

[Lrr]

idk who to vote mang

I currently suspect blazade the most but that's mostly because I don't really have a read on anyone else and he's the best player left imo

 

[Samoyed]

If Martin + pblade is a thing we're screwed over already


FH/Blazade is most likely

 

[Martin]

It's too late in the to be to be indecisive, especially when the results of today are so important in determining how the rest of the game. If you have any hunches at all act on them.

 

[Martin]

*how the rest of the game plays out

stopped mid sentence

 

[Former]

If Martin + pblade is a thing we're screwed over already


FH/Blazade is most likely

We aren't, If it is Martin + Pblade, today just becomes the last day we can stop them (hence why I have my lynch on them instead of blazade).

 

[Former]

Well DL is about a day away, so a real quick improved vote count.

Martin: Blazade, Former (2)
Former: Martin (1)

Not voting: Aubisio Paperblade

For those who aren't voting, do you plan to vote today? If so, who?

 

[Lrr]

I definitely think the last scum is between FH and Blazade rn and that they are going for the Martin scapegoat to win

in an ideal world we would double lynch there

So I will probably end up voting Former

 

[Samoyed]

Paperblade if we vote FH we should cast at about the same time to be sure

We could also lynch Martin and (assuming they're not scum) have the survivor of the night make a choice.

 

[Blazade]

Well of course Paperblade , you and martin's play from your perspective is clear, just as Former and my perspective is clear from ours. I'm town therefore double test via martin today into lynch former is optimal.

There's little more to be said, it's on who aubisio chooses to trust.

Think about scum wincons, Former or I win by lynching you, killing Aubisio or you through the vetguard, and getting the other lynched.

Martina nd Pblade win by getting anyone else lynched right now.

I didn't think it would come down to this honestly, I was ready to believe Texas was the last scum because of my evidence on the 3 of you. I don't want to take any chances from here on out. That said if you forced me to bet on which one the scum is I'd say it's Former.

 

[Former]

tbh, I do agree with blazade still though on opposite. Best lynch is still by far martin because we have time and because of the wincon for a Martin/Pblade faction.

Though in terms of roles, blazade is by far the scummiest. Though I guess if you want a comparison of roles.

I claim a vig, something town hasn't had except for Texas, who had one shots of other town roles (huh, I guess this is actually evidence for my towness). Anyways, a vig, an otherwise no CC'd role vs a Role Counter, a role which can target someone and gain something to stop them. Between the two of those, something designed to counter town should absolutely be seen as far scummier.

 

[Lrr]

meh w/e

vote: Blazade

 

[Martin]

unvote vote blazade

 

[Former]

I guess I could see those votes being either town or scum: town, knowing the other is innocent meaning it's blazade or I, as scum wanting to push the lynch onto blazade or I again to win at the end of the day.

However while I guess a double lynch on blazade/martin would end the game (5 people > 3 people (Pblade/Aubisio/Me) > I kill Pblade, if the game isn't already over) I'd prefer the much safer alternative of only lynching Martin and confirming if they are indeed the remaining scum instead of getting hasty and losing the game for town. So Aubisio I would really appreciate it if you would place your vote on Martin and help town win this next day (ie, not do the double lynch that seems to be happening).

 

[Martin]

Yeah, that play isn't alignment indicative. Regardless of my faction my best play is to vote for whoever PBlade votes for, and both of our best plays are to take one of you two out here--with doubling down being the only way of making this possible.

Also seconding the notion that a double lynch of me+blazade is out of the question today because it creates a stalemate if neither of us are scum. If both me and Blazade die and FH is scum, not nightkilling anyone is an extremely bad play by FH because it would guarantee town win, and nightkilling PBlade or Aubisio creates a tie 'cause you can't get a majority from two voters and both players will obviously vote for each other, meaning town haven't won.

At this point you can't honestly call a lynch on me "much safer"; at this stage in the game there is no such thing as a "safe" play because even if you confirm PBlade's faction from my death you then still have to bank on a coin flip, and ultimately today's lynch is going to lay the foundation for the victory rate tomorrow. The time for info gathering is over, with it now being a game of trust. The play here being togo for a position which allows us to put scum in a checkmate position--which is something taking out either of Blazade or FH acheives.

Aubisio I sincerely hope you trust me here, because it will be extremely frustrating to have this extremely long our grasp only to watch it slip through our fingers over a coin flip.