MLB 2015

Texas Cloverleaf

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So I joined a random league and drafted with the goal of excitement, what do you think about my lineup?

C - Devin Mesoraco
1B - Jose Abreu
2B - Anthony Rendon
3B - Josh Donaldson
SS - Elvis Andrus
OF - George Springer
OF - Christian Yelich
OF - Hunter Pence
UTIL - Brandon Belt
UTIL - Gegory Polanco
BN - Javier Baez
BN - Rajai Davis

SP - Jacob DeGrom
SP - Carlos Carrasco
RP - Craig Kimbrel
RP - Dellin Betances
P - Colin McHugh
P - Taijuan Walker
P - Brett Cecil
P - Shelby Miller
BN - Aaron Sanchez
BN - Daniel Norris
BN - Jorge De La Rosa
 
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biggie

champ
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DeGrom as your staff ace? Bruh that's ballsy. There's obviously a lot of upside here but you're rolling the dice on a lot of unproven players.
 
I kind of agree with everyone else's takes on your team. It's decent, but you're playing to potential on offense and your pitching doesn't have the support it needs to win you many categories. Spending big on Kimbell when you don't go after another lock up in RP is kind of risky (Tor closer really isnt a sure thing, and Betances has been about 5 mph lower with no life on his pitches this year and has been hammered) because I don't see the Braves being good enough to have that many save chances, and their OF defense scares me. Offensively, like a lot of people said, you don't have a lot of sure things and need a lot of things to break your way. Hope guys like Springer and Yelich don't turn out like Profar and Xander last year. You're going to hit and miss a lot, but if you're in a shallow league with a large free agent pool, you can find replacements/stream your way through a lot of things.

Also, while we're doing RMTs, I kind of want some feedback on my ESPN Dynasty league for my second year. I have some possible injury issues with Miggy and Tulo, but I like my backups just in case. Background is a deep roster H2H 8 team standard 5v5 with a whole lot of active positions. We have different keeper rules, and all of these players are keepers for next year unless they hit the free agent pool at any time. And we have 3 DL spots... so it's pretty much all keepers.

Anyways, lemme know what you think:

C Yadier Molina
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Josh Donaldson
OF Jacoby Ellsbury
OF Corey Dickerson
OF Alex Gordon
OF Brett Gardner
OF Shin-Soo Choo
1B/3B David Wright
2B/SS Dustin Pedroia
UTL Todd Fraizer

Bench Javier Baez
Bench Chase Utley
Bench Joc Pederson
Bench Coco Crisp
Bench Dalton Pompey

P Chris Sale
P Stephen Strasburg
P James Shields
P Chris Archer
P Ian Kennedy
P Jered Weaver
P Craig Kimbrell
P Koji Uehara
P Huston Street

Bench Addison Reed (Stream spot really)
 
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Texas Cloverleaf

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Oof. I think you're flirting with danger there especially for a keeper league. I'm so off of Miggy this year I think his days as a top 10 player are done, Tulo doesn't need explanation, Molina is in the decline phase and there's no guarantee he'll be good this year let alone next, Ellsbury is six seconds away from imploding imo, Gardner is declining iirc, pitching staff depends on how the injury risk pitchers end up, could be fine, could explode on you. Bench is nice.
 
Don't care for Tulo in H2H league as you never know if he'll bone you by getting injured in the playoffs. Trade one of Ells or Gardner; you shouldn't be rostering multiple players from the same team at the same position. When you DL Crisp, pick up another starter. Curious, who were your keepers?

Miggy will be a top 3 player if healthy
 
Thing with Tulo is, he can carry my team on the weeks he has a heavy home schedule. He can easily put up close to .310/20 HR/65 RBI in about a half a year. And I can DL him and put in Baez or someone on the FA like Evereth Cabrera, Didi Gregorius and get a total SS production in one year that still outpaces most everyone else. You have to keep in mind that I don't lose all SS production those weeks Tulo is hurt, and that's what still makes him a top 15 fantasy player. Yeah, those weeks are going to suck when he's not at home or when he is hurt. But I'm hoping those are the weeks that Donaldson or Miggy do their thing and carry a team like they can.

Been trying to trade Gardner for SP, but most everyone has SP holes and the market is really hard to crack into.

It'd be easier to tell you who my keepers weren't. This year I drafted Dickerson, Frazier, Baez, Pederson, Kennedy and Pompey. Rest were on my team last year or guys I traded for before the draft.
 
I get your logic, and that's why I target Tulo aggressively in roto leagues, but in H2H, you're taking that risk of not having him for the fantasy playoffs and possibly having to start some scrub off the wire at the thinnest position at the most vital time of the season (this is why I love Ian Desmond). No guarantee Baez figures it out this season btw, he has too many holes in his swing and his pitch recognition is lacking.
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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Speaking of Desmond I somehow got myself into two leagues simultaneously and one of them ended up being actually ridiculous

C Lucroy
1B Matt Adams
2B Kipnis
SS Desmond
3B Kris Bryant (chase headley in interim)
OF McCutchen
OF Springer
OF Soler
UTIL Hunter Pence
UTIL Rajai Davis

SP Stephen Strasburg
SP Cole Hamels
RP Steve Cishek
RP S Casilla
P Samardzija
P Tanaka
P Addison Reed
P Shoemaker

Bench
Hutchison
Gyorko
Pompey
Headley
Roark


Through the first 7 or 8 picks I couldn't believe the team I was drafting was this ridiculous.
 
What round did you get Bryant? I've heard he's been going sooner than Arenado and Frazier in some redrafts, which is fucking redonk
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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1.(3)Andrew McCutchen (Pit - OF)
2.(22)Stephen Strasburg (Was - SP)
3.(27)Ian Desmond (Was - SS)
4.(46)George Springer (Hou - OF)
5.(51)Cole Hamels (Phi - SP)
6.(70)Jorge Soler (ChC - OF)
7.(75)Kris Bryant (ChC - 3B)
8.(94)Jeff Samardzija (CWS - SP)
9.(99)Jonathan Lucroy (Mil - C,1B)
10.(118)Jason Kipnis (Cle - 2B)
11.(123)Steve Cishek (Mia - RP)
12.(142)Masahiro Tanaka (NYY - SP)
13.(147)Matt Adams (StL - 1B)
14.(166)Santiago Casilla (SF - RP)
15.(171)Hunter Pence (SF - OF)
16.(190)Addison Reed (Ari - RP)
17.(195)Matt Shoemaker (LAA - SP,RP)
18.(214)Rajai Davis (Det - OF)
19.(219)Drew Hutchison (Tor - SP)
20.(238)Jedd Gyorko (SD - 2B)
21.(243)Dalton Pompey (Tor - OF)
22.(262)Chase Headley (NYY - 1B,3B)
23.(267)Tanner Roark (Was - SP)


Got him in the seventh, figured I could afford a bit of a reach after starting off as strongly as I did and knowing he'd be gone by the time I came around next (was looking ahead and seeing "good pitcher"+lucroy in the cards, woods/shields/gray/iwakuma all went around the same time as shark. Best players around his pick were Yelich and Arrieta imo, didn't care for them as I did Bryant)
 
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I'm gonna talk about some things in this thread because I think it's interesting!

Atticus, I don't think Sanchez is terrible but wouldn't be surprised to see him do poorly as a starter. I think it's worth it in April considering the situation with Stroman, and it essentially acts as a chance to see if he can start. If he performs terribly over 4 starts, it's not the end of the world, and they'll sink him to the bullpen where he'll be a relief ace. If he performs average or mediocre, that's okay! He doesn't need to come in and save the world. Henderson Alvarez type performance would be great out of him, honestly. If he put up ~2 WAR I would be over the moon.

@other people, Cabrera is likely to be a really valuable fantasy asset I'd be wary of expecting top 5 performance, just from the variance of possible outcomes his injury + likely decline (though it won't be drastic unless the injury bug hits him terribly). If he isn't horribly injured I think he'll likely be done with his insane 170 wRC+ and likely be at 140 levels, which is still REALLY good but won't be MVP level.

I'm also a little skeptical at Bryant attaining the levels a lot of people expecting. We seem to have a Mike Trout created prospect bias, but in terms of the range of possible outcomes it is just so much more likely that Bryant plays at an above average level that it is hard to see the exuberance that others have.

For one last bit of predictions, I will proceed to pretend that I know anything about the randomness that is baseball.

AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. (WC) Buffalo Bisons.
3. (WC) New Hampshire Fisher Cats....

lol.

AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Rays

Teams 2-5 are closer than 1-2 - the Red Sox are good and feature depth, and have an incredible amount of depth in their system for internal and external replacements through trades. A lot would have to go wrong for them to be horrible, though it's happened recently (2012) it shouldn't be considered something that makes them susceptible - in baseball, sometimes everything goes wrong.

The Stroman injury was huge for the Blue Jays, and they've introduced more variability (rightly so, in my opinion), by going young in quite a few areas. It's the type of upside play they needed to make, with their all-in offseason (their offense will be top 3 in MLB).

fuck the Orioles. If they win 90+ again I will change my avatar to that fucking orange thing.

AL Central
t1. Cleveland Indians
t1. Detroit Tigers
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins

The Kansas City Royals aren't good. They weren't even that good last year, and they got worse. It was exciting to watch, but let's be realistic.

On the other hand, the Tigers are good! The Indians are good! They both have inherent risks. It's exciting to see ties and tiebreakers and watch them wreak havoc on the playoff structure, so I am rooting for chaos.

Writing these takes time actually and I'm lazy so here's the rest!

AL West
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Houston Astros
5. Texas Rangers

WC #1: LAA
WC #2: TBJ

Some talk about MVPs: It's incredible that Mike Trout is so good that I would almost take a bet for him over the field. It's insane to think that he is so good. However, he still represents the divide between old/new, and I am as optimistic as to him winning unless the Angels run away with the West (potential voter fatigue on repeat). Still, even if he doesn't win MVP in 50% scenarios, he has to be the most likely candidate.

If the Blue Jays do make the playoffs, Josh Donaldson will likely have been their best player, and Jose Bautista will receive the most MVP votes. Such is the way of the MVP.

AL MVP: Mike Trout
AL Cy: Chris Sale
AL Rookie of the Year: Daniel Norris

NL East
1. Washington Nationals
2. Miami Marlins
3. New York Mets
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Philadelphia Phillies

NL Central
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Chicago Cubs
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Cincinnati Reds

quick note here - 1-3 are really close imo (Cubs have the highest variance performance due to all their young players obviously), but I honestly see all of them in the second tier of teams in the NL (LA and WAS are 1-2)

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

Note - the Rockies are better than the Diamondbacks. I fully expect this to be the year when they realize that holding on to Tulo/Gonzo is a foolish idea based on their current timeline. If they keep them, switch them, though it doesn't matter.

WC #1: CHC
WC #2: STL

I honestly can't see another team competing with them? The Marlins/Padres are the most likely combatants for one of the spots but it just feels like they're behind the curve. It can happen, but gun to my head 3 playoff teams out of the central.

More interesting than the AL MVP, the NL MVP feels like it could go an infinite number of directions. The NL Cy, on the other hand, seems like a bet of Kershaw vs. Field. Soler is mostly a playing time thing - but the NL Rookie of the Year will be really good.

I think people forget how young Bryce Harper is, and that he already has 2 4 WAR seasons. He is on a Hall of Fame career path (though obviously much less so than Mike Trout, the fucker spoiled us)

NL MVP: Bryce Harper
NL Cy: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year: Soler (I WANNA SAY SYNDERGAARD SO BADLY)

Everyone else, what are your thoughts?
 
AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Orioles
3. Blue Jays
4. Yankees
5. Rays

My Red Sox prediction is for first because I can't help going into this year without optimism. Vegas has us as AL favorites, our offense is scary, Napoli and Pedroia look one hundred percent and I expect big things out of Xander, Mookie, Craig, Nava, and Brock Holt. Red Sox do have their problems though. And it starts with our pitching, but not our starting pitching. My biggest concern this year is that our bullpen is weak even with Koji, and who knows how long he is out for. We have a lot of guys who had past success, but I don't know if they can get it back to good. The Sox starting pitching is good enough to get them through a season and they have top prospect pitchers who can fill in some gaps. And if they are in it, I expect them to get a pitcher like they got Peavy in '13. You need number one guys in the playoffs. You just need an above average, O's/KC/LAA/SF/OAK staff to get through the regular season. I also see Swihart killing it in AAA and taking the reigns of this staff after the Vazquez injury. He's not ready now but he knows if he kills it, he has the C job. So, yeah. There are some negatives. But I like the positives and their abilities to hang in there.

Rest of the division I see as most do really. The Blue Jays are a nice team to watch, and they're a streaky team. Get them hot and in the playoffs they can be this years Royals. I just think their bullpen is substandard to cover their pitching, and their offense is a bit too top heavy to be better than the Red Sox. Not sure how many Kevin Pillar or Kawasaki at bats you can afford. I just see the O's as having the better bullpen and starters, and their offense is no slouch either. I want to put the Yankees in last place, but I know they will get some pieces to be competitive. Just dont think they have it in them. And the Rays I gave my opinion on before. No Maddon Magic and it's going to be a disaster going from a great manager in Maddon to a guy like Cash. Like... think Bobby Valentine bad.
AL Central
1. Detroit
2. Chicago
3. Cleveland
4. Kansas City
5. Minnesota

The sexy pick this year is Cleveland. And I get it. But high and deep at the end of the season when you can look up at the wall, you can count that the White Sox will be on the board yes. And no, I'm not bleeping you. I still think that Detroit has the pitching depth (well, okay, Simon is going to get rocked off his ass) to get through 162 and their offense is solid with Miggy, Vic, Kinsler and Yoenis. Bullpen sucks as ever but maybe this is the year they get actual help like Papelbon instead of allowing Joba to blow up 3 games in a row. The White Sox just have the makings of a team that can stick in there for a season. Lot of pitching and a solid bullpen with some good young players and an offense that's just good enough. Cleveland is a good team, but I'm not buying their pitching at all besides their closer. Kluber I don't see as being that good again, and Carasco I don't see as being the guy either. Kansas City almost made it up the charts but their pitching and offense is absent. And I always question teams who go on blow out runs the next year. Twins are what they are and won't surprise anyone unless Paul Moliter becomes a player coach.

AL West
1. Seattle
2. Houston
3. LA Angels of Anaheim in California Angles
4. Oakland
5. Texas

God do I want Oakland to do well, but they sold the farm for their one game last year and it didn't work. Every year we look at Oakland and say they're not gonna do much because they dont have the pitching, offense, defense, or bullpen. But every year they somehow have pitching, offense, defense, and a solid bullpen. Really want them to do well, but on paper it's hard to say they're worth it. Seattle is no surprise, I'm on that bandwagon. I expect huge things out of Springer, Altuve, and the insane stat heads in Houston. I think this is the year. Texas does better than we expect, but Darvish needed to be there for something special.

WC
Houston
at Chicago

ALDS
Seattle
vs Houston
Detroit vs Boston (Papelbon blows game 5, just because Tigers suck. And yes, the Boston cop celebrates too.)

ALCS
Seattle vs Boston

MVP: Trout
Cy: Felix
Rookie: Mookie (Is he rookie elligible? I dont really care.)

NL East
1. Washington
2. New York
3. Miami
4. Atlanta
5. Philadelphia

Easiest division in baseball to pick. Only thing I got to see is who is worse, Atlanta or the Phils... and that really results in who fire sales first.

NL Central
1. St. Louis
2. Pirates
3. Chicago
4. Cincinnati
5. Milwaukee

All these teams can both be great and also be bad. And who knows how they'll be. St. Louis got a bopper in Heyward and their pitching is pretty much the same. I swear Waino's arm will fall off, but it hasn't yet and St. Louis is just too good and I respect their program too much. I know you guys hate um here, but I'm all for the fighting Fred Birds. Pirates are the same team they always were. I feel that Chicago struggles the first two months and goes on a Dodger-esque run mid season when Joe figures it all out and they'll meet Pit in the Wild Card Game. Cinci and the Brews can be flip flopped, but they can be just as good or bad as anyone else.

NL West
1. LA Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres
3. San Francisco
4. Colorado
5. Arizona

I don't like the Dodgers as much as I liked them last year. But they still have a great staff with a great offense. So they should make it through to the playoffs. Padres I'm not high on and see them as a distant 2nd just a few games over .500. They're going to be a team like the Yankees were last year. In it until the end statistically, but not really every having a shot. It's an odd year, so SF finishes terrible and their offense I have to guess is in question without Pence to injury or Sandoval to Boston. Rockies are better than expected, but they won't pitch worth a shit (I can't tell you one guy on their rotation besides maybe De La Rosa? Is he still there?). Arizona... I dont know what they hell they do with their players to ruin them all the time. But their ruiners with short leashes and I dont see anyone doing much besides Trumbo, who I think will lead the NL in homers.

Wild Card
Chicago at Pittsburgh

NLDS
Nationals vs Cubs
St. Louis
vs LAD (Carpenter MVP for a 3 HRs on Kershaw)

NLCS
Cards vs Cubs

MVP: Troy Tulowitzki (Stays healthy all year long and posts 50 homers, making me look like a fantasy genius after drafting Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz back to back.)
Cy: Wainwright
Rookie: omgkrisbryantomg

THE BIG DANCE

Red Sox vs St. Louis

Wins for the Sox in 2004... 2013... and why not 2015. Boston in 6 with Matt Barnes closing it out at home. Subsequently, David Ortiz retires and doesn't have a sob story Christmas retirement like Derek Jeter.
 
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Atticus

Atticus
is a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnuswon the 10th Official Smogon Tournamentdefeated the Smogon Frontieris a Two-Time Past SPL Champion
i REALLY want to like sanchez but his numbers in AA/AAA are so shit, i mean ffs i think his BB/9 is like 5.5...............
 
I'd normally like to say that this year will be the Dbacks rebound, but yeah...that ain't happening. Being a fan ain't easy sometimes. But being a Coyotes fan as well, I'm now used to not expecting too much and to enjoy wins if they happen.
 
Was a great trade for SD. I don't know if I'm feeling them now or not. They feel too much like the Marlins did when they signed up Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell and proceeded to explode. I can't help feeling like Atlanta could have gotten more than a few guys from a pretty picked over system for a guy like Craig. Just wondering what all the Tigers would give up for example. Or the Yankees now that Betances looks like the failed starter instead of the relief ace. Or even Boston now with Uehara being gone for who knows how long. Not only do I think they get a better return, I see them messing up Philadelphia in their quest to trade Papelbon. So, great for SD and questionable for ATL.

Other notes for today is that Yadier surprised the hell out of me looking skinnier than Kolten Wong. That's almost unhealthy. And Schil looked absolutely terrible. I know he just underwent some heavy cancer treatment and that takes a huge toll on his body, but he looked like a 60 year old vampire.
 

Stallion

Tree Young
is a Tiering Contributoris a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis a Three-Time Past WCoP Champion
Things that grind my gears:

Dustin Pedroia, who did sweet fuck all for me last year swatted 2 HRs in a game against me.

Alex Rios, who has been whinging about how much pain his thumb is in all offseason and with everyone saying it'll affect his power, goes and hits 3/4 with a HR and a steal, while Napoli doesn't play and Revere goes 0/4.
 
Was a great trade for SD. I don't know if I'm feeling them now or not. They feel too much like the Marlins did when they signed up Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell and proceeded to explode. I can't help feeling like Atlanta could have gotten more than a few guys from a pretty picked over system for a guy like Craig. Just wondering what all the Tigers would give up for example. Or the Yankees now that Betances looks like the failed starter instead of the relief ace. Or even Boston now with Uehara being gone for who knows how long. Not only do I think they get a better return, I see them messing up Philadelphia in their quest to trade Papelbon. So, great for SD and questionable for ATL.
the Kimbrel trade was mostly to get rid of Melvin "don't call me BJ" Upton's ridiculous $50 million than it was to get a return on Kimbrel. let's face it, Braves were 95% certain not to be contenders this year and 90% certain to be trading Kimbrel come June. Padres were likely the only team willing to take on Upton's contract, which frees up a lot of money over the next couple years.

I'm no diehard baseball fan, but it hurts when your team dials it in before the season even started. the Braves are playing for the new ballpark in 2017 all the way, and this gives them some leverage and maneuverability to be relevant when that season comes around. I'm going to miss the hell out of Craig pitching for us, but had we not gotten rid of him he might have never pitched in a truly meaningful game for the rest of his contract. hopefully he'll get to do so somewhere else :pirate:
 

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