As requested.
It's a good thing my doctoral advisor won't see the amount of words I'm typing out in one sitting nowadays...
1.
Star vs. 16. pj - If Star has ever had this potent of a breakout year before, then he must have had to really overhaul his skincare routine. Since the start of the year he's had a 10-win SPL, was the first seed in both Classic and Smogon Tour, and enjoyed a very respectable 4-1 WCoP to boot. His recent SCL managerial campaign is probably the only blemish on an otherwise terrific 2021, for which I can only apologize. His first stint as the top seed in Classic didn't go too well for him and he's up against another Asiancy member as the 16th seed again, too. Will it go better this time?
I mean, probably? pj has quietly been winning a lot in smaller tournaments throughout this generation, such as the OU Seasonal. On top of that he's actually been around for a long time, formerly known as praj.pran. I'd consider him a threat, but wouldn't put my money on him against Star. He's just been too good this year. This
may go the other way entirely, though I just haven't seen enough from pj at this level to get there yet. I do think Star is feeling the pressure a bit to get over that individual playoff hump, as that's really the only thing remaining for him to still reach after this year's SPL. I'm confident he's up to that challenge, though. Starmaster W.
2. MichaelderBeste2 vs. 15.
Malekith - You might be thinking I could provide some unique insight on this banger of a Platoon pairing, but you'd be wrong. I have not now or have ever had any control over either of these behemoths. They do as they please and they usually win. I'd give Michael an initial mental advantage, as he's going to be absolutely infuriating to schedule with for Malekith. They're both European, but they're on either side of the spectrum. For reference, there's two types of Smogon Europeans when it comes to scheduling. The eager student type that's available to play at like 8:30 AM GMT +1, can't play after 10 PM (yet plays Smogon Tour on Friday night) and has a 'busy week' every week; that's Michael in this case. Then there's Daddy Kith, who'd be happy to start their series at 2 AM any day this week, but might not see the sun again until April. It's always the degenerates I can more closely relate to..
Honestly, this prediction is more off of feeling and perhaps even loyalty than anything else. Michael has obviously won a ridiculous amount of games this year between all of WCoP, OLT, SCL and now Smogon Tour. He's rapidly becoming one of the most consistent and best OU players in the community right now. Malekith overcame a, and this is true, Shadow Ball Latias to make it here and has been a great player for as long as Michael's been alive, give or take. I just get a vibe that he'll do it big here. Thank you both for being great for our team in SCL and I'm very much looking forward to this series. Shoutouts Malekith.
3.
Giannis Antetokommo-o vs. 14. z0mOG - I'm writing this post a bit biased, as the real Giannis dropped 47 comfortable points on the Lakers night. I will keep it a buck with you, because I admittedly did bring up that the actual Giannis couldn't do it in the playoffs in prediction posts of the past. He sure as hell can now. However, where does this leave the Kommo-o version? WCoP was a bit of disaster for Giannis, even if Smogon Tour qualification has looked ever so comfortable once more. Individuals come a lot easier than team tournaments for some people, and that's obviously okay. It's nice to see you back in your element, Giannis.
Meanwhile, z0mOG should lose for a couple of reasons. First of all, z0m is the first person to use a team submission account since Prague Kick, which makes me a little nervous. On top of that, z0m is a notorious current gen slanderer that even played an SCL game under the alt "SS OU HATER". Cannot fuck with. It's exactly that type of energy that deserves to be punished, though it's nothing z0m hasn't weaponized in the past. I'm not gonna lie, I'm quite worried z0m is going to load up some nonsense people submitted to be funny and that it's going to win. If anyone could make it work, it's z0m. It better not I swear.
4.
Bushtush vs. 13. Fc - This could have been a gracious bout between two of Canada's finest talents, but one of these two Canadians is Bushtush. In fact, Bush wouldn't use the word "grace" unless that same sentence also contained "deez nuts" and "your face". As for their paths leading up to this encounter, they couldn't be more different. Fc is very much a surprising fixture at a glance, though less so if you look a little closer. Fc is a grinder that just plays a lot of games in all kinds of different formats. He was bound to make the jump. I've played him in Ubers a few times myself and perhaps not being as familiar with these metagames can be a good thing, because he's a good player that likes building with bad Pokemon. I'd have bolded Fc for sure if Zamazenta-C actually did get unbanned...
As much as I'd like to tell Bush that he's allergic to dust and the reason shampoo bottles come with instructions on the back, he has been a prominent figure in the community all year, even if he's missing a few buttons on his proverbial remote control. He's gone from BWTUSH in SPL to making Classic playoffs, and now comfortably qualifying for Smogon Tour as the #4 seed. According to one source he also went 8-0 in SCL, which is very impressive as well. Until I've seen more from Fc in OU tiers, I feel compelled to back Bush for now. The fact that Fc has a lot of badges compared to Bush having been banned from the forums in the past also certainly favors Bush in a bo3. That's just how it works. I don't make the rules.
5. SoulWind vs. 12.
qtipsa - Yep, we're doing it. All aboard the China hype train. It's been great to watch the Chinese community gradually integrate on Smogon more and more. It started with POWC and after Separation broke through last year the floodgates have opened. Team China qualified for the main draw of WCoP and competed in the various unofficial WCoP variations as well. As for qtipsa themselves, I'm admittedly less familiar. They weren't on the Team China roster during WCoP, which only speaks to their depth. What I do know is that qtipsa had 24 points after three weeks, bettered only by Star this season, and then had to overcome the mid-season starting time changes, which were particularly detrimental for their timezone. qtipsa ended up missing two entire weeks of qualifying and made it in anyway. Fire.
On the other side we find SoulWind, a man whose spirit Pokemon would be Kabutops; a grumpy old fossil that's x4 weak to touching grass. Not too much has changed. Nobody is surprised he's qualified and we all know he's one of the best players ever, both historically and still now today. Realistically he probably should win this series comfortably, right? But.. what if he doesn't? In fact, if we dig a little deeper, there are some troubling signs on the horizon. As mentioned before, qtipsa made it into these playoffs despite not participating in all of the qualification tournaments. Well, the last time SoulWind had to face someone in a playoff series that managed to qualify the hard way like that, he lost to spies in Classic a few weeks ago. Could be a coincidence, of course. I'm 99% sure SoulWind will be the earwax in this relationship.
6.
beatiful vs. 11. xtra$hine - Now this is a spicy pairing that I'm looking forward to the most out of any of them. bea has been on an absolute tear in tournaments this year. Sitting pretty at 17-5 on The Sheet for 2021, 25-9 overall, he's won the second most team tournament games out of anyone this year, behind only Eo. Add yet another OLT appearance to the mix and you're looking at the most winningest SS player in these playoffs, by far. bea is a great SM player, too. In fact, I think he likes SM better than SS, even. I might've considered him to be the favorite to win it all if he wasn't so lax about his preparation and team choice. Unfortunately, and unlike SoulWind, bea is too busy touching grass and it cost him against Gama in SCL last week, for example.
xtra is actually very dangerous, too. He qualified for these playoffs with a lovely even points spread between the generations and he has a loyal group of friends that will help him get ready for this series as well. I still feel as though bea has won too much to go against him here, but if he's lazy and reuses publicly available stuff, I think he could very well run into gnarly match-ups across the board. xtra's been around for a long time and isn't new to this stage whatsoever. I certainly wouldn't underestimate him. Especially with both players' styles and preferences in mind, this series could absolutely be an upset waiting to happen. Very excited for this.
7.
watashi vs. 10. jonfilch - Smogon Tour, Grand Slam, Classic; watashi is there this year, no matter the tiers played. I like it. I'm bolding watashi under the assumption he's going to approach this like he did SCL once his team was eliminated. No oversight, no concerns, just vibes. Put some stuff together in the builder with nice color synergy and a fun item or moveset here or there, and vibe. Genuinely a top 5 scariest opponent on the website under those conditions. You could tell he started to care and actually prepped in Classic playoffs, which promptly resulted in a loss to a 1v1 player. Let's hope he's learned his lesson and plays for at least one other tournament during his series or something. Queuing up some AMQ or watching anime on the side also definitely qualifies.
Facing watashi this week is jonfilch. Handpicked by xray in SPL this year, his first time starting in a team tournament came with mixed results, though 2-3 certainly isn't terrible for a relatively cheap slot. Until I've seen more I have to approach jon as decent, however not yet great. This is a good test for him, I think. watashi is an experienced and frequent fixture in these playoffs and represents the hurdle newer players have to clear in order to win tournaments like this accurately. I'm curious to see how jonfilch will show up to this series, but fear the worst. watashi coming off a loss and potentially going "fuck it" mode is a frankly terrifying prospect.
8.
egalvanc vs. 9. Flex OKLM - This is an underrated series I think, though mostly because Flex OKLM brings the least flex-y teams of all time, regularly featuring the likes of Tornadus-T and Toxapex. I'm curious to see how this is gonna go, especially from egalvanc's side. He's quietly made his second playoff appearance in a row and we would've seen more of him in team tournaments already if he wasn't on bad terms with some of the Team Spain people in WCoP. I favor him in SM especially, where he's creative and managed to garner a ton of points in qualifying this season. A massive improvement from the mere 5 SM points last season, too.
Flex I'm not really sure what to make of. Definitely a solid enough player that can see out balance vs. balance adequately, but nobody I would've paid much attention to if not for his loud and perhaps grammatically challenged Smogtours presence either. In fairness, egalvanc can be prone to 'moments', which someone like Flex could take advantage of as he outlasts his opponent. I've seen him do it before and it wouldn't shock me if it were to happen in this series as well. I'm gonna go with egalvanc for now, though. Something tells me he's bringing exactly the right flavor sauce for the occasion.