“I’m just trying to get my NBA 2K rating up.” - Hassan Whiteside
Toronto finally did it. They got over that hump. I bet Toronto fans feel really, really good right now. Three whole regular seasons of success and only one playoff series win in three years. Only to be met with Joe Johnson once again in the playoffs.
And that’s one aspect of this match-up I find most peculiar. Joe Johnson is back, the guy who haunted them two years ago.
So, Miami’s starting backcourt is essentially Dragic, Wade, and Johnson versus Toronto’s which is Lowry, DeRozan, and Carroll. Three years ago, they had nobody to match Johnson’s size. Now, they do. Problem is, Miami’s backcourt are full of guys who can take advantage of their match-ups. All three of these guys on the other end are going to have to defend at a high level. DeRozan has to make sure Wade/Johnson don’t go off on them. That also assumes Lowry’s as good at defending Dragic as Kemba was down the stretch. Will Toronto’s backcourt also continue to struggle in efficiency? You could do that against Indiana, but do that against Miami and as we’ve seen in their last series, you’re as good as toast.
Whiteside will dominate Valanciunas. Guarantee it. Too physical, too fast, too tough. Ian Mahinmi was garbage and Turner was a rookie. If Miami manages to take Valanciunas out of the series, it won’t least too long. He’s pretty much the only reason they stayed in the Indiana series. His rebounding and finishes at the rim gave Lowry and DeRozan the occasional space but if he’s not scoring, then Toronto’s going to have a tough time scoring with him on the floor. Al Jefferson could at least shoot jumpers but his shots got occasionally altered and blocked. Valanciusnas is simply outmatched at an athletic and skilled level.
If there’s one advantage I will concede to Toronto, it’s their bench. They have an amazing group of athletic and quick guys. Ross has grown, Cory Joseph is speedy, Biyombo brings the defense and Powell has the craziest dunks. Miami’s bench is trash sometimes. Justice Winslow can be a force on the defensive end but that’s about it.
If this series is for Toronto to win, I say it starts with their bench, Patterson, and the combined defense of Lowry/DeRozan/Carroll. I can’t expect Valanciunas to do anything against Whiteside. Deng is playing so much better than Patterson right now so I’m inclined to believe Miami will have more consistent spacing. How Casey plays Wade/Johnson will decide a lot of things, because DeRozan will have to guard one of those guys while simultaneously not scoring 30+ points in 30+ shots. You simply cannot give Miami too many opportunities like that to run. Ask Kemba. Paul George had his way last series and now the problem with Miami is that it’s not only compounded but their paint defense is actually pretty good.
Toronto wins if: Casey figures out how to curb Wade/Johnson production, Miami’s bench is ass enough to lose them a series, Whiteside can’t stay on the court
Miami wins if: They can’t hide DeRozan, Whiteside is too athletic, they play small better than Toronto since Deng can actually shoot from three right now.
Miami in six.